August 27,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II: This Triangle Will Not Take Shape

The argument in favor of a “Sino-Russian-North Korean” triangle in Northeast Asia rests on the notion that Beijing and Moscow need North Korea for reasons that outweigh their broader political and economic interests and that North Korea has no choice but to go along with the triangular arrangement, because the alternative would be complete isolation, regime meltdown, and, eventually, absorptio..

Sergey Radchenko
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks
August 18,2015 Open Forum

Russia, China and the Emerging Greater Eurasia

Russia and China drawing together is an unmistakable phenomenon in today’s international relations. Is it a result of deteriorated Russo-US and Sino-US relations or does it have more fundamental origins? How is it altering the evolving structure of international relations? To these questions, both in Russia and abroad, diverse, and at times, contradictory opinions have been expressed. Russians w..

Alexander Lukin
Economic Relations , International law , National security , Silk Road Economic Belt , sovereignty , Ukraine crisis
August 18,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: China (August 2015)

Chinese articles in recent months have been unambiguous in asserting Chinese positions on issues in the forefront of international relations. They offer telling insights into the thinking behind official rhetoric on India’s more energetic foreign policy, South Korea’s pursuit of middle power diplomacy as in Park’s appeal for a Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative (NAPCI), Sino-US ..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Dong Jiaxin*)
Economic Relations , Middle Power Diplomacy , National security , Sino-US Relations
August 13,2015 Open Forum

The Politics of “Struggling Co-evolution“: Trade, Power, and Vision in Vietnam’s Relations with China

China’s increasing presence, economically and militarily, has the potential to lead to a Chinese sphere of influence in which Southeast Asia is regarded as China’s “backyard.” For realist scholars, China’s regional leadership constitutes an irresistible outcome of its technology, military forces, economic scale, and population. Among them, military and economic indicators are the two cru..

Vu Truong-Minh*
Asymmetric trade , Great Mekong Sub-region , National security , South China Sea , Yarn Forward
August 13,2015 Open Forum

Myanmar’s Liberalization and North Korea: Transforming “Outposts of Tyranny”? Lessons and Cautions

In Western popular parlance, North Korea and Myanmar have been inextricably linked through designate Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s memorable phrase, “outposts of tyranny.” The totalitarian/authoritarian nature of the two governments, at least through 2010, gave superficial credence to that juxtaposition.1 This association has been reinforced by historical events. These include: the at..

David Steinberg
China , Cult of personality , Juche , Military , National identity , nationalism
August 13,2015 Open Forum

Grand Strategy for South Korea? An Overview

All countries need a grand strategy. This is particularly true for the countries located in Northeast Asia. For the Republic of Korea (ROK), the nation’s geopolitical position, the limits of its hard and soft power, and the division of the Korean Peninsula make it very difficult to formulate a practical or feasible grand strategy. Under the current circumstances, South Korea is limited in the ra..

Han Sung-Joo*
Japan-US relations , National security , Sino-Russian Relations , trust-building
August 13,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2015)

Japan-Russia Relations Relations with Russia appeared to be back on track in the first part of the summer. Plans for Putin to visit Japan were going forward despite unconcealed disapproval by the Obama administration. Japanese writers held out hope for trouble in Sino-Russian relations in the face of many signs to the contrary. Abe’s determination to pursue an independent foreign policy at th..

Editorial Staff
Japan-ROK tensions , Japan-US alliance , National security , Putin-Abe summit , South China Sea
August 04,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I: No Escape from Troubled Seesaw in Japan-China Relations

Japan’s relations with China for about two years from September 2012 were the worst they had been since normalization in 1972. In late 2014 and over the first months of 2015, the impression spread that relations had turned a corner. Some saw signs of a return to the seesaw in relations observed for about two decades previously. Yet, since September 2012, China continues sending its patrol boats ..

Takahara Akio*
EEZ , National security , Senkaku Islands
August 04,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II: This Triangle Will Take Shape

The arguments against this triangle taking shape are essentially three-fold. First, North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons and will not accept a secondary role in relation to China. Thus, the tensions between the two will persist. Second, as Sergey Radchenko argues, Russia has too little to gain from strengthening its ties to North Korea in a “Cold War” fashion, lacking the geopoliti..

Gilbert Rozman
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks