May 18,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I: Japan-US-India will be “Natural Allies”

Japan-US-India trilateral security cooperation has been progressing fast. These three countries hold foreign minister level strategic meetings and trilateral naval exercises called Malabar. The increasing US-India arms trade especially indicates how much progress has been achieved (Figure1). Arms are to be used in tough conditions while retaining their mechanical precision. As a result, they ..

Nagao Satoru*
Chinese assertiveness , Japan-India-Australia Trilateral Dialogue , Malabar , Rim of the Pacific Exercises , US-China military balance
May 10,2016 Open Forum

Synopsis of the Asan Plenum, “The New Normal,” April 26-27, 2016

[Asan Plenum 2016 Agenda] “North Korea Out of Control, China Overextended, the United States Arousing Doubts, South Korea Sobering Up” The 2016 Asan Plenum put “gloom and doom” in the forefront as the “New Normal,” while offering repeated hints of a polarized “New Order” in Northeast Asia. Instead of deepening troubles awakening states to shared interests in “peace and stab..

Editorial Staff
Donald Trump , New Normal , Nuclear insecurity , Resolution 2270 , SIno-US talks , TPP
April 29,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Reconciling Alternative Scenarios

One Belt and One Road, hereafter the new Silk Roads, is a Chinese initiative to connect different parts of regions in Asia. As a newly launched ambitious program from a rising power, it has incurred concerns, skepticism, and resistance from other players in the region. Indeed, in the positive scenario, skepticism and self-doubts are reported in China after the inauguration of the new Silk Roa..

Min Ye
ADB , AIIB , Asian Financial Crisis
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Introduction to Special Forum

The relationship between the United States and Japan has changed under Prime Minister Abe and President Obama not only becoming more robust bilaterally, but acquiring new significance in trilateral contexts. This is evident along the southern reaches of Asia as Australia, India, and various countries of ASEAN now have reason to view Washington and Tokyo as partners in security as well as the ..

Editorial Staff
Japan-US relations , South China Sea , trilateralism
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Japan, China, and the United States in an Uncertain Asia

Since the territorial dispute erupted, there has been limited contact between the leaders of Japan and China. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Xi Jinping have met only once since the initial meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Beijing in November 2014, when they decided to put an end to their standoff. The military risk reduction agreement that they so..

Sheila A. Smith
Alliance Coordination Mechanism , Maritime Self-Defense Force , Senkaku Islands , State Oceanic Administration
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Reviving the US-Japan-Korea Triangle in South Korean Diplomacy

On March 31, 2016, President Obama, President Park, and Prime Minister Abe held a summit in Washington, DC on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit. They agreed to be united in responding to provocative actions by North Korea and to enter into discussions for upgrading security cooperation, as well as to work toward steady implementation of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reso..

Park Cheol Hee*
December Accord , Fourth nuclear test , History consciousness , Japanese militarism , Northeast Asian Trilateral Summit , UNSC resolution 2270
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Synopsis of the German Marshall Fund’s Japan Trilateral Forum, March 1-2, 2016

Why is it important to forge a global triangular framework under the auspices of Washington, Tokyo, and Brussels? Triangularity was assumed to exist during the Cold War, but Japanese horizons remained seriously limited and Europeans relied heavily on US power in East Asia. A triangle of this sort was posited as the emerging structure in the early 1990s before China’s rise and Japan&rsqu..

Editorial Staff
AIIB , Asianism , Populism , Post-modern Syndrome , Refugee crisis
April 28,2016 National Commentaries

A View from the United States

Inadvertent escalation or Chinese expansion? Two very different fears compete for attention in the proliferating discourse on the risk-rich imbroglio  of the South China Sea. Some fear an inadvertent escalation that may unnecessarily trigger war. Others fear Chinese expansion that prepares for its hegemony. Only Xi’s China cultivates a priority fear of American expansion. Many of China..

Donald K. Emmerson
Nine-dash line , Pax Sinica , South China Sea , sovereignty , UNCLOS
April 28,2016 National Commentaries

A View from Australia

From Indonesia’s perspective, the defense of its territorial waters from incursions and the protection of its natural resources from exploitation are key priorities. China’s aggressive behavior in reclaiming the fishing vessel fits a pattern of belittling Southeast Asian states by flaunting their sovereignty. On March 19, the policies of these two countries collided when Indonesia..

Natalie Sambhi
Global Maritime Fulcrum , Maritime security , Natuna Islands , non-alignment , Pribumi
April 28,2016 National Commentaries

A View from Indonesia

On March 20, 2016, a Chinese coastguard vessel intruded into Indonesia’s territorial sea near the Natuna Besar Island, the largest island in Indonesia’s Natuna Islands located in the South China Sea. The coastguard vessel intended to stop a Chinese fishing vessel, Kway Fey 10078, from being towed by an Indonesian fishery patrol boat, KP Hiu 11, after the Kway Fey and her eight cr..

Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto
code of conduct , Illegal fishing , Indonesian-Sino March confrontation , Nine-dash line , sovereignty