August 25,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

It has been more than two years since the Ukraine crisis ushered in a new era in Sino-Russian relations. Many analysts argue that the Sino-Russian rapprochement began much earlier than 2014, but it is undeniable that 2014 was a watershed year. Since that time, the nascent partnership has experienced both ebbs and flows, as the expectations from 2014 clashed with the dreary realities of 2015...

Gregory Shtraks
Eurasian Economic Union , One Belt One Road Initiative , Russia Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Silk Road Economic Belt , US hegemony
August 24,2016 Open Forum

Washington Insights

In the summer of 2016, Washington DC has been consumed with the Clinton-Trump race and the unprecedented revolt of the Republican national security establishment against their party’s presidential candidate. Three bilateral relations have been in flux against the background of increased uncertainty about Sino-US relations.  DC discussions have in particular focused on Sino-Russian relations, wh..

Editorial Staff
alliance building , Cold War , rebalance , sanctions , Sea of Okhotsk , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Six-Party Talks , South China Sea , THAAD
August 24,2016 Open Forum

The Undercurrent of Sino-Vietnamese Relations

Since 2010, the South China Sea disputes have emerged as the most acute issue in the Sino-Vietnamese relationship. Bilateral relations have suffered greatly as China expands its land reclamation and maritime control in the region, challenging what Vietnam perceives to be its sovereign territory and exclusive economic zones. While most attention has been focused on the contentious maritime dis..

Yun Sun
Chinese Communist Party , Communist Party of Vietnam , economic reforms , liberalization , political reforms
August 24,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: China (August 2016)

The Hague tribunal’s adjudication of the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines dominated Chinese foreign policy discussions in mid-2016. Chinese analysts also assessed relations with Russia and India, suggested structural reforms to encourage the resumption of the Six-Party Talks, and considered the implications of Japan’s new security laws. Hague Tribunal on..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
Arunachal Pradesh , ASEAN , Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands , East and South China Seas , Eurasian Economic Union , Hague Tribunal , Silk Road Economic Belt , Six-Party Talks , Tibet , Xinjiang
August 12,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II: India’s Balance of Interest in the Asian Century

By outlining the nuances propelling India’s diplomatic and military engagements in recent weeks, this article argues that each nation in the India-US-Japan trilateral design is guided by its own individual national interest and that India’s attitude toward geopolitical realities is shaped by a balance between engagement and autonomy. This piece, as the first one, analyzes developm..

Titli Basu
BRICS , East China Sea , India-US-Japan , Nuclear Suppliers’ Group , RIMPAC , SCO , Shangri-La Dialogue , South China Sea , UNCLOS
August 12,2016 Open Forum

Northeast Asia’s Space Launch Nationalism

*The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not represent official policies of the U.S. Navy or the U.S. Department of Defense. Northeast Asia today is in the midst of a major expansion of space launch services—with Japan, South Korea, North Korea, China, and Russia all attempting to build new boosters, often at costly new national facilities. National leade..

James Clay Moltz
anti-satellite weapons test , geostationary orbit , liquid-fuel rocket , low-Earth orbit , space launch capability , UN Convention on the Registration of Space Objects , UN Outer Space Treaty
August 12,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2016)

Articles in the spring and early summer of 2016 were split between two categories: those on Sino-Russian relations, affirming or refuting charges that they have failed to meet expectations; and those praising Russia’s ability to remain aloof from the major disputes in the Asia-Pacific while maintaining its great power role. The former tended to draw analogies between conditions faced i..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
ASEAN , Asia-Pacific region , East and South China Seas , Eurasian Economic Union , Silk Road Economic Belt , Sochi Russia-ASEAN summit
August 12,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2016)

In late spring and early summer, the focus of the Japanese media shifted from the G7 and Obama’s visit to Hiroshima to the South China Sea ruling and China’s angry response, followed by intensified pressure on ASEAN. The overall impact was for Japan to strengthen relations with the United States (despite nervousness about Trump) and polarize against China (despite wanting to a..

Editorial Staff
comfort women , Donald Trump , EEU-ASEAN , G7 Summit , Hashimoto-Yeltsin plan , Senkaku Islands , South China Sea , Takeshima , THAAD
August 03,2016 Review Article

Review of Rising China’s Influence in Developing Asia by Evelyn Goh et al. (2016)

For some time China has felt itself alone among many neighbors, and its sudden leap to prominence since 2008 has heightened concern that it might use its increasing asymmetries of power to control its regional environment. While China sees its influence in Asia as a "win-win” interaction based on mutual respect, its actions in the South China Sea have encouraged the view that China..

Brantly Womack
ASEAN , Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank , Development , Hydropower , Monetary policy , South China Sea , UN Human Rights Council