Feb 19,2019 Special Forum

Military Aspects of the Russo-Chinese Alliance: A View from the United States

Recent official US statements postulate Sino-Russian enmity towards the US.1 Moreover, they rightly highlight an unprecedentedly close alignment of these two states against the US.2  In other words the triangular relationship is now a relationship of two against one. Following the US assessment, this article opposes the reigning academic view, expressed in numerous recent studies […]

Stephen Blank

BRI , C4ISR , FONOPs , INF Treaty , Northern Sea Route , Sino-Russian alliance , South China Sea , UNCLOS , Vostok 2018

Jun 29,2018 Special Forum

US-Russia Relations

The unanticipated outbreak of a Korean peace process replete with unprecedented DPRK-US and inter-Korean summits has upended previous calculations among all the members of the six-party process in Korea. Every interested party is trying somehow to join the summit process.1 We see an acceleration of summits involving all parties to the peace process. Kim Jong-un […]

Stephen Blank

Eurasian Economic Union , New Northern Policy , Northern Sea Route , Singapore Statement , Six-Party Talks , Trump-Kim summit

Jun 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

Moscow continues to pursue irreconcilable policies globally and in Asia. As Anna Kireeva has written, Russian writers, if not the government, highlight an allegedly irreconcilable Sino-American rivalry to enhance Russia’s position in Asia. Moscow simultaneously holds out the hope that it can establish at least a long-term working relationship with Donald Trump’s administration on issues […]

Stephen Blank

ASEAN , BRI , EURASEC , North Korea , RCEP , RFE , South China Sea , TPP

Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

The Negative Scenario I

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency generated numerous articles expecting or advocating a rapprochement or even a “grand bargain” with Russia. This reaction reflected Trump’s many favorable campaign statements about Vladimir Putin and the widely-perceived desirability in both Washington and Moscow of improved relations between the United States and Russia. Indeed, the Duma rejoiced at […]

Stephen Blank

Balance of power , chemical weapons , NATO , North Korea , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , Ukraine

Dec 23,2015 Special Forum

Sino-Russian Relations and the Failure of Russo-Japanese Relations

As Sino-Russian relations drew closer after Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency in 2012, Russo-Japanese relations also seemed to be poised for an upward trajectory. Given the troubled state of Sino-Japanese relations over this period and the far-reaching impact of the Ukraine crisis from March 2014, the upbeat mood of Russo-Japanese relations or, more specifically, […]

Stephen Blank

Kuril Island dispute , National security , PLAN , Sino-Russian arms trade

Feb 16,2015 Open Forum

Making Sense of the Russo-North Korean Rapprochement

Although the six-party process about North Korean nuclearization is moribund if not dead, ongoing informal discussions among those parties are robust and ever evolving. Because these multi-party relationships are so protean, they force us to devise an analytic framework for them. After all, these talks are about much more than Korean denuclearization. They represent an […]

Stephen Blank

Ostpolitik , pivot to Asia , rapprochement , Ukraine

Apr 11,2014 Open Forum

Russo-Chinese Relations in Strategic Perspective

Russian and Chinese leaders regularly profess an ever-growing congruence of interests and ever-increasing economic, political, and even military cooperation. According to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in October 2013, “Bilateral relations have never reached such high levels.”1 Yet, arguably there is much less harmony here—although what harmony there is remains quite real—than is publicly professed. While […]

Stephen Blank

Arms sales , Asymmetry , energy , junior partner , Sochi Olympics , Ukraine , Ukrainian invasion , Vietnam

Jul 19,2013 Special Forum

Cold War in Asia? China, Russia, and Asian Security

Although the Cold War ended by 1991, commentators, experts, and others repeatedly invoke this metaphor at any sign of great power tension. 1 Since the United States and China are the two strongest global and Asian powers, mounting bilateral tensions stimulate many to postulate a new Cold War between them. Others argue that US-Russian relations […]

Stephen Blank

Arms Race , Central Asia , Cold War , India , New Cold War , Sino-Russian Relations , Southeast Asia