August 12,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II: India’s Balance of Interest in the Asian Century

By outlining the nuances propelling India’s diplomatic and military engagements in recent weeks, this article argues that each nation in the India-US-Japan trilateral design is guided by its own individual national interest and that India’s attitude toward geopolitical realities is shaped by a balance between engagement and autonomy. This piece, as the first one, analyzes developm..

Titli Basu
BRICS , East China Sea , India-US-Japan , Nuclear Suppliers’ Group , RIMPAC , SCO , Shangri-La Dialogue , South China Sea , UNCLOS
August 12,2016 Open Forum

Northeast Asia’s Space Launch Nationalism

*The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not represent official policies of the U.S. Navy or the U.S. Department of Defense. Northeast Asia today is in the midst of a major expansion of space launch services—with Japan, South Korea, North Korea, China, and Russia all attempting to build new boosters, often at costly new national facilities. National leade..

James Clay Moltz
anti-satellite weapons test , geostationary orbit , liquid-fuel rocket , low-Earth orbit , space launch capability , UN Convention on the Registration of Space Objects , UN Outer Space Treaty
August 12,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2016)

Articles in the spring and early summer of 2016 were split between two categories: those on Sino-Russian relations, affirming or refuting charges that they have failed to meet expectations; and those praising Russia’s ability to remain aloof from the major disputes in the Asia-Pacific while maintaining its great power role. The former tended to draw analogies between conditions faced i..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
ASEAN , Asia-Pacific region , East and South China Seas , Eurasian Economic Union , Silk Road Economic Belt , Sochi Russia-ASEAN summit
August 12,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2016)

In late spring and early summer, the focus of the Japanese media shifted from the G7 and Obama’s visit to Hiroshima to the South China Sea ruling and China’s angry response, followed by intensified pressure on ASEAN. The overall impact was for Japan to strengthen relations with the United States (despite nervousness about Trump) and polarize against China (despite wanting to a..

Editorial Staff
comfort women , Donald Trump , EEU-ASEAN , G7 Summit , Hashimoto-Yeltsin plan , Senkaku Islands , South China Sea , Takeshima , THAAD
July 27,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II: Japan-US-India Security Cooperation Has Progressed “Dramatically”

The Japan-US-India cooperation has progressed dramatically over the last two months (June-July 2016). Three developments, in particular, have highlighted an advance in the trilateral security cooperation. First, defense ministers from all three countries at the 15th Asia Security Summit (Shangri-La Dialogue) emphasized the importance of trilateral security cooperation. Nakatani asserted, &l..

Nagao Satoru*
Asian Security Summit , Indian Ocean , Malabar maritime exercises , Shangri-La Dialogue , South China Sea , UNCLOS
June 15,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: China (June 2016)

In the spring of 2016, Chinese analysts considered the repercussions of North Korea’s latest nuclear test. They assessed the prospects for China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) policy, with particular attention to its implementation in Iran and Afghanistan. They also evaluated the prospects for Sino–Russian cooperative relations, and sharply criticized Japan’s intervention in the South C..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
Afghan reconstruction , Cuban missile crisis , enuclearization , Japanese intervention , Sino-Iranian relations , SLOC , Sustainable security , THAAD
June 03,2016 Open Forum

Chinese Interpretations of Japan and Its Role in the Indo-Pacific Region in 2016

In April, Kishida Fumio made the first official visit by a Japanese foreign minister to China in more than four years. Sino–Japanese relations had deteriorated over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute in the early 2010s and have yet to recover. They overcame one hurdle when Xi Jinping agreed to meet Abe Shinzo during Abe’s visit for the November 2014 Beijing Asia-Pacific Economic Coope..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
Article 9 , China threat theory , Expansionist history , India-Japan relations , Japanese Air Self-Defense Force , proactive pacifism , Quadrilateral initiative , South China Sea , UNCLOS
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Introduction to Special Forum

The relationship between the United States and Japan has changed under Prime Minister Abe and President Obama not only becoming more robust bilaterally, but acquiring new significance in trilateral contexts. This is evident along the southern reaches of Asia as Australia, India, and various countries of ASEAN now have reason to view Washington and Tokyo as partners in security as well as the ..

Editorial Staff
Japan-US relations , South China Sea , trilateralism
April 29,2016 Special Forum

Japan, China, and the United States in an Uncertain Asia

Since the territorial dispute erupted, there has been limited contact between the leaders of Japan and China. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Xi Jinping have met only once since the initial meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Beijing in November 2014, when they decided to put an end to their standoff. The military risk reduction agreement that they so..

Sheila A. Smith
Alliance Coordination Mechanism , Maritime Self-Defense Force , Senkaku Islands , State Oceanic Administration
April 29,2016 Special Forum

The Japan-US-Russia Triangle in 2016

The Washington-Tokyo-Moscow triangle has intermittently drawn attention since the 1950s for its potential to shift Japan’s foreign policy and alter the course of great power balancing. Until the late 1970s, Tokyo’s soft stance—a territorial deal in return for an autonomous foreign policy or an energy program boosting the Russian economy—was of prime concern, although it never ..

Gilbert Rozman
2 + alpha , Abe-Putin courtship , G-7 sanctions , Hikiwake , Northern Territories , Ukraine