October 13,2016 Open Forum

On the Brink of a Breakthrough or Doomed to Fail Again: Will A Fresh Effort at Repairing Russo-Japanese Relations Bear Fruit?

Of all major countries, Japan has been the only one to pursue relations with Russia on a generally positive trajectory since the 2014 Ukraine crisis. Recently, the pace of exchanges has accelerated, and the scope and depth of Russo-Japanese discussions have been growing quickly. From May 2016, Moscow and Tokyo have entered a period of intense diplomacy aimed at achieving a breakthrough in the..

Dmitri Trenin
1956 Moscow Declaration , Crimea , Northern Sea Route , Putin , Shinzo Abe , turn to the East , Ukraine crisis , Yamaguchi summit
September 22,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

China-Russia relations appear to have gained considerable momentum in recent years. A think tank report published this year, co-authored by Russian and Chinese experts, argues that, in the security sphere, “both states have closely approached the line that separates strategic partnership from military-political alliance,” though neither state wishes to cross this line.1 This summ..

Brian G. Carlson
Eurasian Economic Union , One Belt One Road , Power of Siberia , Russia Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Siberia , THAAD , US hegemony
September 22,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Below I respond to the negative scenario for Sino-Russian relations, as presented by Brian Carlson, and attempt to discern the most realistic outcome for how this relationship will evolve in the short-term. The main argument is that the Chinese adage of “hot politics, cold economics” will continue to apply to Sino-Russian partnership, as bilateral trade may remain moribund while c..

Gregory Shtraks
Eurasian Economic Union , G20 , One Belt One Road , Russia Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Silk Road Economic Belt , South China Sea , US hegemony
August 29,2016 Special Forum

Introduction to the Special Forum

Not long ago, there was talk of the “end of history,” as if the post-Cold War era gave the nations of the world—especially dynamic East Asia—a compelling opportunity to put aside troubled historical memories. Instead, history in the past quarter century has continued to divert progress toward forging a future-oriented regional community. Many looked to 2015 with dread, fearin..

Editorial Staff
Cold War , imperialism , militarism , Sinocentrism , Territorial Disputes , WWII
August 29,2016 Special Forum

Russian views of Japanese history

As Russia and Japan strive in 2016 for a breakthrough in a relationship long seen as falling behind its true potential, historical consciousness on the Russian side is an overlooked factor. Japanese historical memory toward Russia has been widely examined. Balance of power in East Asia or economic objectives of the two countries have been the subject of frequent attention. Neglect of Russian ..

Dmitry Streltsov
1956 Declaration , Anti-Comintern Pact , Kuril Islands , South Sakhalin , Soviet Union , WWII
August 25,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

Chinese and Russian leaders regularly declare that their countries’ bilateral relationship is at its highest level in history. The two countries share similar views on a range of international issues, and though they disavow any intention to form an alliance, they frequently proclaim their desire to oppose “hegemonism” and to build a multipolar world. In recent years, they h..

Brian G. Carlson
Eurasian Economic Union , Power of Siberia-2 , Russia Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Siberia , Silk Road Economic Belt , US hegemony
August 25,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

It has been more than two years since the Ukraine crisis ushered in a new era in Sino-Russian relations. Many analysts argue that the Sino-Russian rapprochement began much earlier than 2014, but it is undeniable that 2014 was a watershed year. Since that time, the nascent partnership has experienced both ebbs and flows, as the expectations from 2014 clashed with the dreary realities of 2015...

Gregory Shtraks
Eurasian Economic Union , One Belt One Road Initiative , Russia Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Silk Road Economic Belt , US hegemony
August 24,2016 Open Forum

Washington Insights

In the summer of 2016, Washington DC has been consumed with the Clinton-Trump race and the unprecedented revolt of the Republican national security establishment against their party’s presidential candidate. Three bilateral relations have been in flux against the background of increased uncertainty about Sino-US relations.  DC discussions have in particular focused on Sino-Russian relations, wh..

Editorial Staff
alliance building , Cold War , rebalance , sanctions , Sea of Okhotsk , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Six-Party Talks , South China Sea , THAAD
August 12,2016 Open Forum

Northeast Asia’s Space Launch Nationalism

*The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not represent official policies of the U.S. Navy or the U.S. Department of Defense. Northeast Asia today is in the midst of a major expansion of space launch services—with Japan, South Korea, North Korea, China, and Russia all attempting to build new boosters, often at costly new national facilities. National leade..

James Clay Moltz
anti-satellite weapons test , geostationary orbit , liquid-fuel rocket , low-Earth orbit , space launch capability , UN Convention on the Registration of Space Objects , UN Outer Space Treaty