October 07,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2015)

The shadow of history hung over Japan in the late summer as Abe’s statement was debated, the seventieth anniversary of the war’s end passed on August 15, and Xi Jinping commemorated the same anniversary on September 3. Various bilateral relations were put in historical context, as was the march to collective self-defense laws that preoccupied the Japanese public through much of September. Ther..

Editorial Staff
Economic Relations , History Wars , National security , North Korea , Post-Cold War , ROK-Sino alliance , Russo-Sino alliance
September 21,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (September 2015)

On August 23 in Rossiiskaia Gazeta, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote about the significance of the seventieth anniversary of war’s end for relations with China. Linking the struggle against Naziism and Japanese militarism, he spoke proudly of the precedent of mobilizing all forces in each of these nations. He praised the Soviet Union too as the only state that came to China’s aid in the af..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
European Union , National security , Regionalism , Silk Road Economic Belt , Sino-Russian Relations
August 27,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II: This Triangle Will Not Take Shape

The argument in favor of a “Sino-Russian-North Korean” triangle in Northeast Asia rests on the notion that Beijing and Moscow need North Korea for reasons that outweigh their broader political and economic interests and that North Korea has no choice but to go along with the triangular arrangement, because the alternative would be complete isolation, regime meltdown, and, eventually, absorptio..

Sergey Radchenko
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks
August 18,2015 Open Forum

Russia, China and the Emerging Greater Eurasia

Russia and China drawing together is an unmistakable phenomenon in today’s international relations. Is it a result of deteriorated Russo-US and Sino-US relations or does it have more fundamental origins? How is it altering the evolving structure of international relations? To these questions, both in Russia and abroad, diverse, and at times, contradictory opinions have been expressed. Russians w..

Alexander Lukin
Economic Relations , International law , National security , Silk Road Economic Belt , sovereignty , Ukraine crisis
August 04,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II: This Triangle Will Take Shape

The arguments against this triangle taking shape are essentially three-fold. First, North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons and will not accept a secondary role in relation to China. Thus, the tensions between the two will persist. Second, as Sergey Radchenko argues, Russia has too little to gain from strengthening its ties to North Korea in a “Cold War” fashion, lacking the geopoliti..

Gilbert Rozman
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks
August 03,2015 National Commentaries

A Russian Commentary

"The Iran Nuclear Deal and the North Korean Nuclear Issue"   Russian policymakers, academics, and pundits who believe that the Iran deal was good and Russia stands to benefit from it recommend that this multilateral bargaining experience be replicated in disabling Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Those who regard it as the Kremlin’s defeat and fear Russia’s subsequent geopol..

Alexandre Y. Mansourov
Crimea annexation , Iran nuclear deal , National security
July 29,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2015)

Russian publications have turned decisively to the establishment of a new world order opposed to US-led “vertical globalization.” It centers on Asia, capitalizing on North Korea to influence South Korea’s choices, assuming close Sino-Russian ties at the core of the new order, and envisioning the BRICS and SCO summits as building blocks. Contemptuous of the notion that Russia is isolated, art..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
BRICS , Economic Relations , North Korea , Regionalism , SCO , US-Sino rivalry
July 13,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I: This Triangle Will Not Take Shape

The argument for a China-Russia-DPRK triangle in Northeast Asia hinges on the idea that these three countries are willing to coordinate their actions on the international stage, adopt similar positions on key regional questions, and develop trilateral cooperation in economic or military spheres. I argue below that at present, there is little evidence of such a triangle. This analysis looks, in tur..

Sergey Radchenko
Maritime Economic Belt , Silk Road Economic Belt
June 12,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I: This Triangle Will Take Shape

In the period 1949-1989, the Northern Triangle comprised of China, the Soviet Union, and North Korea played a formidable role in a hot war and then in the Cold War, despite the Sino-Soviet dispute over more than half of this period. In this context, there was a virtual Sino-Soviet alliance, although they fiercely competed for greater influence in Pyongyang. The essence of the triangle was: 1) the ..

Gilbert Rozman
US Pivot to Asia
May 18,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (May 2015)

Preparations for the May 9 Victory Day celebrations showcased Russia’s relations in Asia more than in Europe despite the fact that May 9 has long been recognized as V-E (victory in Europe) Day. While Kim Jong-un was expected until he suddenly had a change of plans, Xi Jinping was clearly the guest of honor. Articles focused on both bilateral Sino-Russian relations and the wider Asian context in ..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
EEC , SCO , Silk Road Economic Belt , Ukraine