October 23,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (October 2018)

In mid-2018, Chinese experts assessed China’s relations with South Korea and Japan’s increasingly autonomous approach toward North Korea. They examined the fragmentation of security cooperation mechanisms in Southeast Asia, evaluated the factors underlying the deterioration in US–Russia relations, and analyzed the evolution of US and Japanese efforts to balance against China. C..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
America First , ASEAN Way , Asian security concept , Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands , THAAD
October 18,2018 Open Forum

Russia’s Revived Debate on China: Historical Perspective and Implicit Significance

In the fall of 2018, the case is again being made that Russia is likely to be amenable to distance itself from China despite the recent tightening of their bilateral relationship. Here, I first assess the strengths and weaknesses of that case, while pointing to its neglect of how recent Russian coverage of China has evolved. The bulk of this article differentiates three schools of thought i..

Gilbert Rozman
BRI , BRICS , China Dream , Cold War , EEU , SCO , Silk Road , Yellow Peril
October 16,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

After North Korea’s sixth and most-powerful nuclear test last September, few would have expected to see President Moon Jae-in step off a plane to embrace Chairman Kim Jong-un on the tarmac at Pyongyang International Airport. Moon's efforts to include North Korea in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics catalyzed fast-paced shuttle diplomacy that has extended beyond the Korean Peninsula via No..

Kathryn Botto
Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration , Pyongyang summit
October 16,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

In what is considered one of Pyongyang’s most potent propaganda events—a mass performance called the “Glorious Country”—Moon Jae-in addressed some 150,000 North Koreans, who erupted in teary applause as he proclaimed a “new era” of peace and prosperity. In his seven-minute-long speech, Moon implored the two Koreas to “end the past 70 years of hostility..

Eun A Jo
Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration , Pyongyang summit
October 11,2018 Open Forum

As China and Russia Draw Closer, Mongolia Feels the Squeeze

In September 2018 Russia carried out the largest military exercise since the height of the Cold War.1 Vostok-2018, held in Siberia, drew considerable attention in the Western media, not just because of the sheer scale of the event (declared as involving 300,000 troops and thousands of tanks and airplanes) but also because China sent an unprecedentedly large contingent force to join in the show..

Sergey Radchenko
BRI , EEF , EEU , Khaltmaa “Genco” Battulga , SCO , third neighbor policy , Vladmir Putin , Xi Jinping
October 08,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2018)

Setting aside the rush of publications on China and North Korea—from Abe’s October visit to China to Japan’s response to plans for a new Trump-Kim summit—this report covers Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and India. The time span is the summer of 2018. Late in this period, Abe saw Putin surprise him with an unwelcome and even rude proposal on their bilateral dis..

Editorial Staff
AIIB , ARF , BRI , BRICS , comfort women , EEF , free and open Indo-Pacific , Sharp power , the Quad , US-China trade war
October 01,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (September 2018)

More than bilateral relations, the big picture interested Russian writers as the summer drew to a close. The prevalent assumption was that the West is in rapid decline and a new world order of some kind is just over the horizon. The positive forces for that include Putin’s assertive foreign policy, China’s rise and close relationship with Russia, and North Korea’s demands ..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
BRI , BRICS , EEF , Khasan-Rajin railway , Power of Siberia-2 , Russian Far East , Southern Kuriles
September 27,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (September 2018)

The second half of the summer saw the build-up to the third summit of Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un as well as more wide-ranging diplomacy in North-South relations in the background. One occasion was the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers’ meeting in Singapore. Another was the closely-watched presidential speech on August 15. Finally, as the summer was ending Moon traveled to Py..

Kim Kimberly
ASEAN Regional Forum , inter-Korean summit , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Mount Geumgang , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration
September 27,2018 Open Forum

Washington Insights Vol. 6, No. 5

The start of the fall brought further confirmation that Trump is driving the agenda, whether by launching trade wars, disheartening allies, or refusing to attend the annual summit in East Asia. DC presentations and discussions proceeded against this unprecedented turmoil. At times, the Trump effect stayed well in the background as currents in the region were intensely explored. On other occ..

Editorial Staff
BRI , Eastern Economic Forum , JSOMIA , New Northern Policy , Quad , SCO , Silk Road