Dec 20,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (December 2018)

In late 2018, Chinese experts assessed China’s relations with India and India’s maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean under the Modi administration. They examined the revival of the quadrilateral security dialogue between the United States, South Korea, India, and Japan, evaluated the impact of South Korean citizens’ views toward the United States and China on […]

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , free and open Indo-Pacific , Quadrilateral Security Dialogue , THAAD
Dec 11,2018 Open Forum

The Last Asian Frontier? A Comparison of the Economic Cooperation Agendas of China, Japan, and South Korea with Uzbekistan

China, Japan and South Korea have regarded Central Asia (CA) as a new, and perhaps the last, Asian frontier in their foreign policies after the collapse of the Soviet Union.1 For all these states, CA represented an area where they had not been previously active. In addition, their foreign policies in this region, at least […]

Timur Dadabaev
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Arc of Freedom and Prosperity , Eurasian Economic Union , Islam Karimov , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Shavkat Mirziyoyev , Xinjiang
Aug 29,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Security I

The most recent development in Sino-Japanese relations, particularly in the security arena, suggests that bilateral relations have already hit bottom and begun to improve gradually. On June 8 of this year, a ten-year overdue agreement between the armed forces of the two countries, ”Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between the Japan-China Defense Authorities,” came into force. […]

Yamaguchi Noboru*
"Belt and Road" Initiative , East China Sea , HA/DR , PKO , Senkaku Islands , Yasukuni Shrine
May 21,2018 Open Forum

From Friend to Foe-ish: Washington’s Negative Turn on the Belt and Road Initiative

Despite its status as a Pacific power, the United States has been somewhat peripheral to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since the latter’s inception in late 2013. The United States does not host BRI investments and, like many other major countries, has not signed a formal cooperation agreement setting out terms and conditions for […]

Joel Wuthnow
"Belt and Road" Initiative , ADB , AIIB , Indo-Pacific strategy , the Quad , Trans-Pacific Partnership , World Bank
May 21,2018 Open Forum

Synopsis of the 2018 Asan Plenum: “Illiberal International Order”

The agenda of the 2018 Asan Plenum included a keynote address, a book launch, four plenary sessions, and fourteen panels meeting simultaneously in groups of two or three. My intention is not to be comprehensive but to reflect on commentaries about challenges to the international order: the fall of the order, Sino-Russian relations and the […]

Gilbert Rozman
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , Asan Plenum , illiberalism , Indo-Pacific strategy , Liberal international order , Trumpism
Nov 10,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

In his negative scenario 1, Ivan Zuenko reviewed several possible factors that could substantially worsen Sino-Russian relations in general, including activation of latent Chinese claims to Russian territory and bilateral competition over the Arctic. However, neither development looks likely to occur anytime soon. With regard to Central Asia, Zuenko offers several reasons why Beijing and […]

Richard Weitz
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Collective Security Treaty Organization , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Shavkat Mirziyoyev
Sep 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Setting aside the ongoing debate in The Asan Forum and other platforms about the extent and durability of the Sino-Russian alignment, it is hard to gainsay that Central Asia is the region where China and Russia cooperate most. The Soviet Union’s demise removed a major barrier against non-Russian influence in Central Asia. Even so, rather […]

Richard Weitz
"Belt and Road" Initiative , international terrorism , Islamic State , natural resources , social revolutions
Sep 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

The strategic partnership of Russia and China (as people like to call this relationship, eschewing the word “alliance”) is one of the key factors shaping all of world politics. However, this partnership is still quite fleeting and weakly grounded, inasmuch as it is based on the personal relationship of the two countries’ leaders and their […]

Ivan Zuenko
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Russian Far East , strategic partnership , Trans-pamir alliance
Jun 05,2017 Open Forum

Eurasian Integration “a la Chinese”: Deciphering Beijing’s Vision for the Region as a “Community of Common Destiny”

Beijing’s vision of a 21st century version of the ancient Silk Roads was revealed during two speeches by Xi Jinping, one in Astana and the second in Jakarta, at the end of 2013.1 Kazakhstan and Indonesia were not chosen by mere chance, just one month apart as the official sites for the launch of the […]

Nadège Rolland
"Belt and Road" Initiative , community of common destiny , OBOR , Silk Road , tributary system , Xi Jinping
Apr 15,2016 Open Forum

The Belt & Road Initiative as Power Resource: Lessons from Japan

In 2013, the Chinese government announced its plans to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and to pursue a massive regional infrastructure plan initially called either the “New Silk Road” or the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR), and now officially termed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The simultaneous push to create a new […]

William W. Grimes
"Belt and Road" Initiative , ADB , AIIB , MITI , Transactional power