December 30,2018 Open Forum

Japan’s Debates on Russia and China: What is New in the Final Months of 2018?

Japan’s relations with China and Russia have shifted in important ways in the final months of 2018, but each bilateral relationship needs to be differentiated into multiple dimensions. Below, drawing on Japanese newspapers and articles, I consider five dimensions: 1) politics between the national leaders; 2) national identity issues, including territorial disputes and history; 3) trad..

Gilbert Rozman
December 30,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

In his own words, President Moon Jae-in’s plan “is to make enough progress by the year's end so the [peace] process cannot be reversed,” such that “there can never be another war on the Korean Peninsula.”1 In reality, of course, peace is never completely irreversible. More reasonably, what Moon likely desires is to create such momentum behind engagement with Nor..

Kathryn Botto
Donald Trump , Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Pyongyang summit , Singapore Summit
December 30,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Months have passed since the Pyongyang summit—and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough remain illusory. For a brief moment, the stalled diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang appeared to recover; yet no date has been fixed for a second Trump-Kim summit and the newly-appointed US envoy Stephen Biegun has yet to set foot in North Korea. The deadlock is unsurprising given the profound diff..

Eun A Jo
Donald Trump , Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Moonshine Policy , Pyongyang summit , Singapore Summit
December 27,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (December 2018)

The last part of 2018 was marked by the hopeful aftermath of the Abe-Xi summit and the new push by Abe and Putin to resolve the long-lingering dispute between Tokyo and Moscow. These themes are covered separately in an Open Forum article. Below, attention is directed at the less positive coverage of Japan’s relations with North and South Korea and at the efforts by Abe to bring to fru..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , APEC , East Asia Summit , free and open Indo-Pacific , Korea boom , Tokyo Strategy 2018
December 21,2018 National Commentaries

A Japanese Perspective

What Do the Midterm Elections Mean for Trump's East Asia Policies?The 2018 midterm elections have revealed that President Trump has only Plan A for his reelection campaign in 2020. Trump will seek to go back to the White House by appealing solely to his core support base. This approach will mostly dictate Trump’s approach to East Asia in the next two years.  The president’s par..

Akimoto Satohiro
America First , free and open Indo-Pacific , Meng Wanzhou , Singapore Summit
December 21,2018 National Commentaries

A Southeast Asian Perspective

Hedging Harder: Southeast Asia and the US-China Rivalry“I think it’s very desirable for us not to have to take sides, but the circumstances may come when ASEAN may have to choose one or the other. I am hoping that it’s not coming soon.” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 15 November 20181 “Over the five, 10, 25-year time horizon, just by simple demographics and ..

Malcolm Cook , Ian Storey
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Asia rebalance , BUILD Act , East Asia Summit , free and open Indo-Pacific , the Quad
December 21,2018 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

The New Washington ConsensusWashington DC is a sharply divided city these days. A recent Pew Research Center poll concluded that Americans have increasingly embraced “conflicting partisan priorities for US foreign policy.”1 On most major national security concerns—whether Russia, Iran, North Korea, or Afghanistan—there is little or no bipartisan agreement. On China, however, the..

Zack Cooper , Annie Kowalewski
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Meng Wanzhou , Nine-dash line , South China Sea , Tibet , Xinjiang
December 20,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (December 2018)

In late 2018, Chinese experts assessed China’s relations with India and India’s maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean under the Modi administration. They examined the revival of the quadrilateral security dialogue between the United States, South Korea, India, and Japan, evaluated the impact of South Korean citizens’ views toward the United States and China on South Korea&rs..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , free and open Indo-Pacific , Quadrilateral Security Dialogue , THAAD
December 20,2018 Open Forum

Thirty Years of Japan’s Diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula

When considering Japan’s politics and diplomacy toward North Korea over the thirty years from the second half of the 1980s four important developments warrant attention: 1) Nakasone’s approach during the Cold War; 2) Kanemaru’s 1990 visit to the North in an effort to normalize relations; 3) Japan’s response and domestic politics reacting to the first nuclear crisis of ..

Miyagi Taizo
Cold War , Korean War , North Korean nuclear crisis , North-South Cross-recognition
December 11,2018 Open Forum

The Last Asian Frontier? A Comparison of the Economic Cooperation Agendas of China, Japan, and South Korea with Uzbekistan

China, Japan and South Korea have regarded Central Asia (CA) as a new, and perhaps the last, Asian frontier in their foreign policies after the collapse of the Soviet Union.1 For all these states, CA represented an area where they had not been previously active. In addition, their foreign policies in this region, at least initially, did not have any new objectives but rather were focused on r..

Timur Dadabaev
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Arc of Freedom and Prosperity , Eurasian Economic Union , Islam Karimov , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Shavkat Mirziyoyev , Xinjiang