October 26,2016 Open Forum

Balancing China: Moving Beyond the Containment Fallacy

At a multinational defense forum with ASEAN nations’ defense ministers in late September, US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter repeated his call for like-minded nations to “catalyze the Asia-Pacific’s principled and inclusive security network” to ensure regional peace, prosperity, and stability. At the meeting, the defense ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to ..

Adam P. Liff
ASEAN , China threat theory , containment , deep engagement , Maritime Security Initiative , rebalance , RIMPAC , Shangri-La 2016 , South China Sea
October 26,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

As Abe Shinzo proceeds at breakneck pace to reach a breakthrough with Vladimir Putin, at least five questions need to be addressed from the perspective of the United States. First, is there reason to object to a territorial settlement less than the optimal position of Japan in years past? Second, what economic arrangements between Japan and Russia are likely to be seen as inconsistent with th..

Gilbert Rozman
four islands in a batch , G7 , Multipolarity , Putin , Russian Far East , sanctions , Shinzo Abe , THAAD , two plus alpha
October 26,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Japan-Russia relations started gaining momentum from the beginning of 2016, and even for optimistic observers of that relationship, the tempo of activation that we see now is amazing. It all started in 2012 when Putin, running to become president again in March, held a press conference just a few days before the election, and said that “when elected as president, I want to improve relat..

Kazuhiko Togo
1956 Joint Declaration , Crimea , Eastern Economic Forum , four islands in a batch , Hikiwake , Kawana proposal , Putin , Shinzo Abe , Sochi summit , two plus alpha
October 18,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (October 2016)

Russian articles in the late summer of 2016 found multiple reasons to take heart. The Sino-US relationship appeared more troubled, opening more space for Russia. Plans for transit between the Russian Far East and Northeast China are showcased as advancing. The Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok’s success, especially due to Abe Shinzo’s enthusiastic support for Russia’s ec..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
ASEAN , BRICS , Eastern Economic Forum , EEU , G20 , SCO , Silk Road Economic Belt , South China Sea
October 18,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2016)

How did Abe’s meeting with Putin in Vladivostok contribute to a breakthrough in relations? How are growing tensions over the South China Sea (and divisiveness within ASEAN) and the North Korean nuclear threat impacting Japan? How are relations with South Korea seen now that payment to the “comfort women” fund has been authorized? In the late summer of 2016, we find answers t..

Editorial Staff
ASEAN , comfort women , G20 , rebalance , SCO , Sino-Russian rapprochement , South China Sea , THAAD
October 18,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (October 2016)

In the aftermath of North Korea’s 5th nuclear test, the ideological divide in South Korea has become more intense. On the conservative wing, the need for tougher sanctions and military preparation, even self-nuclearization from those at the extreme, was discussed. On the progressive wing, skepticism about the limits of international sanctions and calls for dialogue were voiced. The late..

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)
comfort women , GSOMIA , Nuclear Test , strategic patience , THAAD
October 13,2016 Open Forum

On the Brink of a Breakthrough or Doomed to Fail Again: Will A Fresh Effort at Repairing Russo-Japanese Relations Bear Fruit?

Of all major countries, Japan has been the only one to pursue relations with Russia on a generally positive trajectory since the 2014 Ukraine crisis. Recently, the pace of exchanges has accelerated, and the scope and depth of Russo-Japanese discussions have been growing quickly. From May 2016, Moscow and Tokyo have entered a period of intense diplomacy aimed at achieving a breakthrough in the..

Dmitri Trenin
1956 Moscow Declaration , Crimea , Northern Sea Route , Putin , Shinzo Abe , turn to the East , Ukraine crisis , Yamaguchi summit