June 12,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I: This Triangle Will Take Shape

In the period 1949-1989, the Northern Triangle comprised of China, the Soviet Union, and North Korea played a formidable role in a hot war and then in the Cold War, despite the Sino-Soviet dispute over more than half of this period. In this context, there was a virtual Sino-Soviet alliance, although they fiercely competed for greater influence in Pyongyang. The essence of the triangle was: 1) the ..

Gilbert Rozman
US Pivot to Asia
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Introduction: Decomposing and Assessing South Korea’s Hedging Options

Increasingly scholars have opined that South Korea’s response vis-à-vis a rebalancing United States and a resurgent China—like that of other Asian states (except Japan and the Philippines)—is neither pure-balancing nor pure-bandwagoning, but a less straightforward approach commonly termed “hedging.”1 That is, rather than completely siding with one power against the other, Seoul has opte..

Kuik Cheng-Chwee*
hedging , ROK-Sino Relations
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Option 1: Enhancing Military Deterrence

In the face of the intensifying threat from North Korea, the option that should be foremost in the strategic calculus of South Koreans is enhancing their country’s capacity for deterrence, relying, above all, on their own military forces and only secondarily on those of the United States. Without making a strong commitment of its own, Seoul is in a weak position to seek a greater commitment from..

Hong Kyudok*
KAMD , Kill-Chain , MRL
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Option 2: Strengthening the ROK-US Alliance

*The views expressed in this report are the author’s alone and do not represent the official position of the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the US government. The security environment in Northeast Asia has undergone significant changes over the past two decades and continues to evolve towards an uncertain future. Particularly important for South Korea has been the incre..

Terence Roehrig
OPCON transfer , ROK-US Alliance , THAAD
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Option 3: Reclaiming Diplomatic Ownership

During the more than five centuries of the Yi dynasty (1392-1910), Korea practiced one-dimensional diplomacy; it had only to take care of its tributary relationship with China. Within this arrangement, Korea enjoyed de facto independence except for ownership of its diplomacy, which Korea had to relinquish to China. This configuration is what some scholars refer to as “benign neglect.” Then, Ko..

Choi YJ*
AIIB , multidimensional diplomacy , Sino-US Relations , TPP
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Option 4: Resuming the Six-Party Talks

The Korean Peninsula has been divided for over seventy years, and there is no sign that the division will end any time soon. The ROK and the DPRK are bogged down in a drawn-out competition, in which neither side has made decisive progress in pursuit of national unification. Recently, the competition entered a new stage, in which additional factors have risen to the forefront. First, China is risin..

Cheng Xiaohe*
NAPCI , Sino-ROK Relations , Six-Party Talks
June 11,2015 Special Forum

Option 5: Rethinking Middle Power Diplomacy

Since the Cold War, South Korea has never been in a lonelier position as four great powers and North Korea have appeared to bypass it in their “pivots” to or within Asia. If North Korea has pivoted to anywhere it is to Moscow, while stonewalling Seoul. The two transformative summits of mid-spring 2015 saw Abe Shinzo and Barack Obama strengthen ties, leaving Park Geun-hye on the sidelines, and ..

Gilbert Rozman
Eurasian Initiative , hedging , MIKTA , NAPCI , Trustpolitik , US-Japan-ROK Trilateralism
June 04,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (June 2015)

Optimism in Japan is in short supply. The Foreign Ministry organized an academic group to analyze Asia after 20 years and consider what Japan’s role will be in the Asia-Pacific regional order. On April 26, Asahi Shimbun reported on both the desirable and the undesirable scenarios identified by the group. On the negative side is continuation of the inward-looking tendencies of the United States, ..

Editorial Staff
One Belt, One Road , One Road"
May 26,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

Many analysts are quick to say that 2014 was a positive year for the US-China military-to-military (mil-mil) relationship. Those same analysts likely see positive trends continuing this year. But what are these analysts measuring? By what criteria are they basing such assessments? I would submit that many China watchers are looking at the wrong things. Rather than measure the quality of the mil-mi..

Randall Schriver
ADIZ , Asia for the Asians