June 03,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I: The Integration of China’s Northeast and Russia’s Far East in the Silk Road Economic Belt

Beijing’s initiative, the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), is meant to contribute to China’s economic rise by creating markets for surplus production of such goods as steel and cement, putting Chinese companies to work building infrastructure, and integrating China’s economy with its periphery. It also was meant to develop comprehensive relations with countries along the SREB ..

Gaye Christoffersen
Dongbei-RFE integration , EEU , ESPO , Heilongjiang , SREB
June 03,2016 Open Forum

Chinese Interpretations of Japan and Its Role in the Indo-Pacific Region in 2016

In April, Kishida Fumio made the first official visit by a Japanese foreign minister to China in more than four years. Sino–Japanese relations had deteriorated over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute in the early 2010s and have yet to recover. They overcame one hurdle when Xi Jinping agreed to meet Abe Shinzo during Abe’s visit for the November 2014 Beijing Asia-Pacific Economic Coope..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
Article 9 , China threat theory , Expansionist history , India-Japan relations , Japanese Air Self-Defense Force , proactive pacifism , Quadrilateral initiative , South China Sea , UNCLOS
May 30,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (May 2016)

On April 12, Sergei Lavrov in Rossiiskaya Gazeta made clear Russian thinking about Mongolia, Japan, and China. His words for Mongolia spoke only of closeness: in history, today, and in three-sided cooperation with China, joining together the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), and the Steppe Road of Mongolia. For Japan, the message was much more guarded: about a ..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
Authoritarian capitalism , EEU , Eurasianism , Pluralism , Sino-Russian Relations , SREB , Turn to Asia
May 27,2016 Open Forum

Washington Insights (Vol. 4, No. 3)

In April and May 2016, the extension and reinforcement of the international system drew repeated attention in Washington: bringing the Europeans into Asian security, solidifying cohesion with Japan in facing challenges in both the South China Sea and North Korea, assessing and responding to China and to Sino-Russian relations, and, most of all, strategizing about North Korea and the combined ..

Editorial Staff
EEU , Japan-US relations , OBOR , SREB
May 26,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (May 2016)

Implementation of Sanctions against North Korea Chun Young-woo opined in the March 25 DongA Ilbo that rigorous implementation is the key to denuclearization of the North. Chun says even such tight implementation would take more than a year until the North changed its behavior and agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Though the Security Council resolution 2270 imposed the highest ..

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)
CICA , Economic sanctions , non-proliferation , Resolution 2270 , THAAD
May 18,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I: India’s Approach towards Indo-Pacific Triangularity

The year 2015 witnessed the formation of new strategic triangulations involving India. Frameworks including US-India-Japan and India-Australia-Japan were added to the existing Indian trilateral engagements, including the India-China-Russia arrangement, which has been in operation since 2002. The new trilateral designs, especially the US-India-Japan arrangement, are sometimes interpreted thro..

Titli Basu
Balance of interest , Geopolitics , SLOC , UNCLOS , US-Japan-India triangle
May 18,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I: Japan-US-India will be “Natural Allies”

Japan-US-India trilateral security cooperation has been progressing fast. These three countries hold foreign minister level strategic meetings and trilateral naval exercises called Malabar. The increasing US-India arms trade especially indicates how much progress has been achieved (Figure1). Arms are to be used in tough conditions while retaining their mechanical precision. As a result, they ..

Nagao Satoru*
Chinese assertiveness , Japan-India-Australia Trilateral Dialogue , Malabar , Rim of the Pacific Exercises , US-China military balance
May 10,2016 Open Forum

Synopsis of the Asan Plenum, “The New Normal,” April 26-27, 2016

[Asan Plenum 2016 Agenda] “North Korea Out of Control, China Overextended, the United States Arousing Doubts, South Korea Sobering Up” The 2016 Asan Plenum put “gloom and doom” in the forefront as the “New Normal,” while offering repeated hints of a polarized “New Order” in Northeast Asia. Instead of deepening troubles awakening states to shared interests in “peace and stab..

Editorial Staff
Donald Trump , New Normal , Nuclear insecurity , Resolution 2270 , SIno-US talks , TPP