Jan 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Donald Trump

Donald Trump came to office vowing to make many changes in US foreign policy, whether in terms of labeling China a currency manipulator,1 and addressing the US–China bilateral trade deficit,2 or questioning the value of alliances. As we enter 2020, it is worth reviewing how US Indo-Pacific policy has changed under the Trump administration, highlighting […]

Scott W. Harold

Donald Trump , free and open Indo-Pacific , freedom of navigation operations , Huawei , maximum pressure , the Quad , TPP , Trump-Kim summit

May 14,2019 Special Forum

Winning the ideological competition with China

The 2017 US National Security Strategy describes a vision of the international arena defined by a return of great power competition, with China as the leading rival of the United States seeking to challenge the liberal international order.1  As Robert Kagan recently argued, authoritarianism has reemerged as “a profound ideological, as well as strategic, challenge.”2  […]

Scott W. Harold

"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , China Dream , Confucius Institutes , Donald Trump , free and open Indo-Pacific , Liberal international order , United Front , Xi Jinping

Dec 29,2017 Special Forum

A Political Perspective

From November 3 through November 14, 2017, President Donald J. Trump traveled to Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines on a lengthy tour of East and Southeast Asia. The White House described the trip as focused primarily on three issues: “strengthening international resolve to denuclearize North Korea, promoting a free and […]

Scott W. Harold

BRI , CPTPP , Donald Trump , Indo-Pacific strategy , Quad , TPP

Jun 17,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Randall Schriver’s essay “US-China Military-to-Military Relations in 2015: The Negative Indicators” sets a high bar for assessing the question of US-China mil-mil relations in 2015. He correctly notes that, one year into a reinvigorated US-China military-to-military relationship, that relationship has not translated into substantial positive changes in Chinese foreign and security policy practice, and, in […]

Scott W. Harold

May 26,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

After a 2014 filled with both symbolically and practically important developments in US-China military-to-military relations, what does 2015 hold for ties between the two countries’ armed forces? Is the mil-mil relationship, historically one of the weakest, least institutionalized, and most destabilizing aspects of the two countries’ bilateral relationship, likely to continue to improve in 2015? […]

Scott W. Harold

Cobra Gold , RIMPAC

Jul 19,2013 Special Forum

Is an Economic Cold War Emerging in Asia?

For the past 35 years, as China’s economic development accelerated in the post-Mao period, US policy towards the Asia-Pacific was aimed at fostering an environment that would gradually integrate China into the international order. Such a policy was intended to give Beijing incentives to play by a common set of rules, allow the United States […]

Scott W. Harold

Beijing Consensus , FTAs , Investment , New Cold War , TPP , Trade , Washington Consensus