January 23,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (January 2020)

In December 2019, tensions increased on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea’s self-imposed year-end deadline approached. North Korea conducted two rocket engine tests at Tongchang-ri to pressure the US while Kim signaled through his horseback ride at Mount Paektu that he may unveil his “new path.” In response, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss Nort..

Yumi Ko
byungjin policy , GSOMIA , Moon-Xi summit , Mount Paektu , Strait of Hormuz , US-ROK alliance
January 23,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (January 2020)

An aura of bravado pervaded Russian publications at the end of 2019. Putin had succeeded in diplomacy around the world, reestablishing Moscow as a decisive voice in world affairs. The relationship with China was solid with scant concern and that with the US was indefinitely on the rocks. Strategic stability had again risen to the top of the global agenda, resuscitating an environment in whi..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
China-Japan-ROK summit , Greater Eurasia , GSOMIA , Moon-Xi summit , US-China trade war
January 20,2020 Special Forum

Introduction

The six countries of Northeast Asia are led by leaders known for their assertiveness. This forum excludes the two who are most bellicose: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un. Despite some claims at times that they could be swayed to make a deal, their inclination to resort to provocations is no longer in doubt. Abe Shinzo spent years wooing Putin in the hope that he would forsake a threatening pos..

Gilbert Rozman
Abe Shinzo , Donald Trump , Moon Jae-in , Xi Jinping
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Xi Jinping

In January 1980, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping gathered senior cadres from the upper reaches of the country’s political system to discuss "the present situation and the tasks before us."1 Just two weeks into the new decade, Deng sensed that the 1980s would be “a dangerous decade” typified by “great turbulence and crises.” But it was also, he exhorted, a ..

Jude Blanchette
"Belt and Road" Initiative , AIIB , community of common destiny , Global Financial Crisis , national rejuvenation , New Development Bank , Xi Jinping
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Donald Trump

Donald Trump came to office vowing to make many changes in US foreign policy, whether in terms of labeling China a currency manipulator,1 and addressing the US–China bilateral trade deficit,2 or questioning the value of alliances. As we enter 2020, it is worth reviewing how US Indo-Pacific policy has changed under the Trump administration, highlighting areas of change, continuity, and the le..

Scott W. Harold
Donald Trump , free and open Indo-Pacific , freedom of navigation operations , Huawei , maximum pressure , the Quad , TPP , Trump-Kim summit
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Abe Shinzo

 On November 20, 2019, Abe Shinzo became the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history, at 2,887 days, surpassing the previous record held by Katsura Tarō in the early 1900s. If Abe serves out his current third three-year term, he will be in office until September 2021. Inclusive of his one-year tenure in 2006-2007, he will have served as prime minister for 10 years. This is a rem..

Glen S. Fukushima
Abe Shinzo , Abenomics , comfort women , Kantei , Liberal Democratic Party , Northern Territories , TPP , Yasukuni Shrine
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Moon Jae-in

The fact that North Korea assumes such center stage in the conduct of South Korea’s foreign and security policies is hardly surprising. Seventy years since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the two Koreas remain locked in confrontation. Despite multiple political and diplomatic initiatives since the early 1990s, all of the principal actors in the North Korean nuclear saga have fai..

Lee Chung Min*
inter-Korean summit , Moon Jae-in , Pyeongchang Winter Olympics , Sunshine Policy , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Several developments since October threaten the current engagement cycle with Pyongyang. North Korea has warned the United States of an ominous “Christmas gift.”1 It has conducted two “very important” missile-related tests in Sohae.2 It has vowed to demolish South Korean facilities in Mount Kumgang.3 It has ignored US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun’s plea ..

Brian Kim
GSOMIA , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , Worker’s Party
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

2019, which began with high hopes for progress in nuclear talks, is coming to an end amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Contrary to expectations, there was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea. However, North Korea’s state-run media reported on December 22 that Chairman Kim held an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of the North’s ru..

Jina Kim
ICBM , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance , wartime operational control , Worker’s Party
December 28,2019 Open Forum

Chinese Economic Coercion during the THAAD Dispute

While the US-China trade war has dominated geoeconomic discussions in 2019, great power rivalry is far from the only domain in which economic instruments are being used in the pursuit of political or strategic objectives. Barely a week seems to go by now without reporting of Chinese economic coercion—the threat or imposition of economic costs designed to influence others’ behavior.1..

Darren J. Lim
economic coercion , Economic Interdependence , exit costs , geoeconomics , Lotte , Made in China 2025 , THAAD , Three noes