October 12,2015 National Commentaries

The South Korean Perspective

"The Challenge for Park's Summit with Obama after Abe's Summit."   As President Park Geun-hye prepares for her meeting with President Barack Obama on October 16, her visit will bring to a close a year of intensive summitry between the US president and his key counterparts in Asia.1 On April 26-May 3, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo had what many regard as one of the most successful US..

Lee Chung Min*
China's military parade , Japan-US alliance , Japanese SDF , National security , North Korea , Sino-ROK Relations
October 07,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2015)

The shadow of history hung over Japan in the late summer as Abe’s statement was debated, the seventieth anniversary of the war’s end passed on August 15, and Xi Jinping commemorated the same anniversary on September 3. Various bilateral relations were put in historical context, as was the march to collective self-defense laws that preoccupied the Japanese public through much of September. Ther..

Editorial Staff
Economic Relations , History Wars , National security , North Korea , Post-Cold War , ROK-Sino alliance , Russo-Sino alliance
September 24,2015 Open Forum

China’s Interests, Actors, and the Implementation of Sanctions against North Korea

Following the first nuclear test by North Korea in 2006, sanctions were unanimously authorized by the UN Security Council (UNSC). Their stated aims were to dissuade North Korea from its development of nuclear capabilities and promote its return to dialogue with regional actors in the Six-Party Talks.1 Since 2006, further resolutions have extended the scope of sanctions: 1874 in 2009, 2087 in Febru..

Catherine Jones
National security , Panel of Experts , sanctions , Sino-DPRK relations , UN Security Council
August 27,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II: This Triangle Will Not Take Shape

The argument in favor of a “Sino-Russian-North Korean” triangle in Northeast Asia rests on the notion that Beijing and Moscow need North Korea for reasons that outweigh their broader political and economic interests and that North Korea has no choice but to go along with the triangular arrangement, because the alternative would be complete isolation, regime meltdown, and, eventually, absorptio..

Sergey Radchenko
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks
August 04,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II: This Triangle Will Take Shape

The arguments against this triangle taking shape are essentially three-fold. First, North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons and will not accept a secondary role in relation to China. Thus, the tensions between the two will persist. Second, as Sergey Radchenko argues, Russia has too little to gain from strengthening its ties to North Korea in a “Cold War” fashion, lacking the geopoliti..

Gilbert Rozman
Cold War , Iran nuclear deal , Regionalism , Six-Party Talks
July 13,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I: This Triangle Will Not Take Shape

The argument for a China-Russia-DPRK triangle in Northeast Asia hinges on the idea that these three countries are willing to coordinate their actions on the international stage, adopt similar positions on key regional questions, and develop trilateral cooperation in economic or military spheres. I argue below that at present, there is little evidence of such a triangle. This analysis looks, in tur..

Sergey Radchenko
Maritime Economic Belt , Silk Road Economic Belt
June 12,2015 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I: This Triangle Will Take Shape

In the period 1949-1989, the Northern Triangle comprised of China, the Soviet Union, and North Korea played a formidable role in a hot war and then in the Cold War, despite the Sino-Soviet dispute over more than half of this period. In this context, there was a virtual Sino-Soviet alliance, although they fiercely competed for greater influence in Pyongyang. The essence of the triangle was: 1) the ..

Gilbert Rozman
US Pivot to Asia
April 09,2015 Special Forum

Recalibrating the Rebalance: A View from South Korea

Akin to other key Asian powers that have a long-standing alliance with the United States, South Korea has welcomed America’s renewed attention to Asia although this is hardly surprising given historically high positive perceptions of the United States and the ROK-US alliance. According to a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in December 2014 on a review..

Lee Chung Min*
AIIB , CFC , Sino-DPRK relations , THAAD
March 02,2015 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (February 2015)

South Korea preoccupied Japanese media more than China, recognized as a threat, North Korea, posing an ever greater threat, and Russia, which was transfixing the media elsewhere. Conservatives were obsessed with the “comfort women” issue and linked progressive dishonor of Japan with South Korean disrespect and campaigns in the United States and elsewhere to sully Japan’s name. The realist po..

Editorial Staff
historical revisionism , Murayama Statement , Yasukuni Shrine