December 08,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (November 2017)

Russian publications through the first half of the fall of 2017 were largely optimistic, assuming the decline of the United States, the reliability of China as a partner, and a considerable Russian leverage in East Asia, including in North Korea. Yet, they recognized that the Eastern Economic Forum failed to attract Asian investors, the Greater Eurasian Partnership lacked much substance with..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)

APEC , BRI , Eastern Economic Forum , Great Eurasian Partnership , SCO , turn to the East

December 08,2017 Open Forum

Russia’s North Korea Policy: The Logic and Dilemma of Assisting North Korea

In seeking bilateral negotiations with North Korea, Japan focused on the abduction issue. It tried to steer the Six-Party Talks toward a comprehensive solution to this problem, as well as to the missile and nuclear threats from North Korea. And it has stuck close to the United States as it ramped up pressure on the North. Meanwhile, by striking a deal on the “comfort women” issue ..

Yoko Hirose

Hwasong-15 , Moonshine Policy , Otto Warmbier , Six-Party Talks , state sponsor of terrorism

November 23,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

Despite my role as a skeptic in the pairing of alternative scenarios, the need for objectivity demands that I acknowledge that I share most of the arguments advanced by Richard Weitz in his first positive scenario. They, however, are fixated on the ongoing situation and practically do not consider many potentially destabilizing factors. One consideration is that Sino-Russian cooperation in C..

Ivan Zuenko

19th Congress , Almazbek Atambaev , Nursultan Nazarbayev , Shavkat Mirziyoyev

November 10,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

In his negative scenario 1, Ivan Zuenko reviewed several possible factors that could substantially worsen Sino-Russian relations in general, including activation of latent Chinese claims to Russian territory and bilateral competition over the Arctic. However, neither development looks likely to occur anytime soon. With regard to Central Asia, Zuenko offers several reasons why Beijing and Mosc..

Richard Weitz

"Belt and Road" Initiative , Collective Security Treaty Organization , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Shavkat Mirziyoyev

November 04,2017 Special Forum

The Trajectory of Chinese Foreign Policy: From Reactive Assertiveness to Opportunistic Activism

In recent years, particularly since Xi Jinping’s ascension to power, it has become commonplace for journalists and experts in the United States to describe China’s external behavior as growing increasingly assertive, even revisionist. Many commentators have attributed this shift to Xi, suggesting a causality between his leadership and China’s growing assertiveness. To many i..

Ryan Hass

19th Party Congress , AIIB , BRI , BRICS , communist party , Xi Jinping

October 30,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2017)

The October issue of Bungei Shunju traced Abe’s trajectory as prime minister. It noted his persistent interest in Japan playing a leading global role, keeping US ties as the foundation of foreign policy while strengthening relations with other countries including China and Russia. In 2014, China was the target, as Abe sought a first meeting with Xi at APEC in Beijing. The tricky war an..

Editorial Staff

BRI , BRICS summit , comfort women , Senkaku Islands , THAAD , UN sanctions

October 23,2017 Open Forum

The Eastern Economic Forum September 2017: What to Make of It?

For the third straight year in early September Vladimir Putin traveled to Vladivostok for an international forum with ambitious aspirations. Three objectives stood in the forefront: 1) to spur development of the Russian Far East, thereby solidifying the continued sovereignty by Russia over this distant and sparsely settled frontier; 2) to “integrate” Russia into the Asia-Pacific r..

Gilbert Rozman

Keywords: economic development , security policy

October 23,2017 Open Forum

Prospects and Limitations of Russo-Chinese Economic Relations

For 15 years from the moment of the signing of the Treaty of Good-neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between Russia and China, noteworthy changes have occurred in this bilateral relationship. They have achieved significant success in strategic cooperation, notably in the field of security as their military-political and military-technical interactions have intensified. The two countr..

P.A. Minakir , D.V. Suslov

an Far East , BRI , EEU-China zone of free trade , SREB

September 29,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (September 2017)

From July to September of 2017, South Korean news editorials discussed threats facing the country from three angles: 1) “Korea scaring,” referring to the latest set of North Korean provocations and deteriorating US-North Korean relations with severe implications for the South; 2) “Korea bashing,” referring to Trump’s increasing vexation with Moon’s talk of ..

Eun A Jo

Berlin framework , ICBM , Korea Passing , Nuclear Test , THAAD , US-ROK alliance

September 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Setting aside the ongoing debate in The Asan Forum and other platforms about the extent and durability of the Sino-Russian alignment, it is hard to gainsay that Central Asia is the region where China and Russia cooperate most. The Soviet Union’s demise removed a major barrier against non-Russian influence in Central Asia. Even so, rather than become a region of rivalry between a rising..

Richard Weitz

"Belt and Road" Initiative , international terrorism , Islamic State , natural resources , social revolutions