April 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Postive Scenario I

Russia until recently anticipated a rapprochement with the United States without damage to its close relations with China. Indeed, given anticipated tensions in US-China relations, the result would be advantageous for Russia: making it the pivot in the “strategic triangle” of these three great powers; sustaining its “pivot to the East” while rebuilding its ties to the ..

Anna Kireeva
Balance of power , Donald Trump , EU , Hub-and-Spokes , North Korea , Russian Far East , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , Ukraine
April 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

The Negative Scenario I

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency generated numerous articles expecting or advocating a rapprochement or even a “grand bargain” with Russia. This reaction reflected Trump’s many favorable campaign statements about Vladimir Putin and the widely-perceived desirability in both Washington and Moscow of improved relations between the United States and Russia. Indeed..

Stephen Blank
Balance of power , chemical weapons , NATO , North Korea , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , Ukraine
March 27,2017 Open Forum

Recent Views in Japan Concerning Sino-Russian Relations

How Japanese officials, media, and academics interpret the state of the relationship between China and Russia matters for Japan’s diplomacy with both countries and its foreign policy more generally, including with the United States. If they see a strong bond verging on an alliance with little chance of weakening, then Tokyo must accept that it has few options other than to draw closer t..

Yoko Hirose
8-point economic cooperation plan , Abe Shinzo , Arms sales , Balance of power , BRICS , energy , G7 , India , Kuril Islands , media
March 27,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (March 2017)

On February 10, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs carried an Interfax interview with Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov on Russian Asia policies in the past year. He cited as the biggest event the May Sochi summit with the members of ASEAN. A second important event was carrying the entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO to the “finish line,” with possible entry in 2017. The thi..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
Abe Shinzo , APEC , ASEAN , Cold War , Denuclearization , Eastern Economic Forum , globalization , Greater Eurasia , India , Kuril Islands
March 23,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (March 2017)

In the first months of 2017, the cloud of impeachment hung heavily over South Korea’s foreign policy, while China’s anger at the THAAD deployment kept growing, and signs of the Trump administration taking a tough stance against North Korea’s increasingly serious threat capacity were growing too. Seoul’s relations with Tokyo were more troubled than before, and ties to M..

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)
Arms Race , ASEAN , comfort women , Eurasia Initiative , impeachment , India , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Kim Jong-nam , missile tests , NAPCI
February 28,2017 Open Forum

Washington Insights (Vol. 5, No. 1)

Rarely has there been such a tumultuous period in US foreign policy, reflected in DC discussions of it; many unknown figures were joining a new administration as lines of authority and influence were not only in flux, they were in chaos. Few in the think tank community spoke for the Trump team, but on Asia policy, there were also few who were not relieved as it pulled back on plans for a radi..

Editorial Staff
Abe Shinzo , Arms trade , ASEAN , Australia , Central Asia , comfort women , contingency , G8 , Georgia , India
February 24,2017 Open Forum

The Limitations of “Global Korea’s” Middle Power

2010 was a pivotal year for the Republic of Korea: as host of the G20 Leaders’ Summit—the first non-G7 and non-Western country to do so—the relatively small country earned international recognition as a significant force in the global arena. If the 1988 Seoul Olympics was South Korea’s debut on the international stage, then the Seoul G20 Summit was the equivalent—its opportu..

Balbina Y. Hwang
anti-globalization , BRICS , Cold War , G20 , G7 , impeachment , liberalism internationalism , middle power , Middle Power Diplomacy , MIKTA
February 22,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: China (February 2017)

In late 2016-early 2017, Chinese analysts examined state-level decision-making on the Korean Peninsula. In the first batch of articles written after the Hague tribunal’s decision, they explored China’s approach to ASEAN, interpreted Duterte’s new China policy, and assessed ASEAN maritime management. They also considered the origins and implications of Abe’s nationalism..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
ASEAN , ASEAN Maritime Forum , ASEAN Regional Forum , ASEAN+3 , community of common destiny , Duterte , East Asia Summit , energy , G7 , Greater Mekong Subregion
February 10,2017 Open Forum

Japan’s Russia Policy: Looking Back on 2016 and Ahead to 2017

Building closer relations with Russia was undoubtedly one of the main priorities of Japanese foreign policy in 2016. This was made clear by Prime Minister Abe in his New Year press conference that year when he emphasized the importance of holding regular summits with Russia, thereby indicating that he would proceed with plans for the Russian leader to visit Japan in 2016. He reiterated the po..

James D.J. Brown
1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , Crimea , East China Sea , Eastern Economic Forum , G7 , G8 , Hikiwake , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories