Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Postive Scenario I

Russia until recently anticipated a rapprochement with the United States without damage to its close relations with China. Indeed, given anticipated tensions in US-China relations, the result would be advantageous for Russia: making it the pivot in the “strategic triangle” of these three great powers; sustaining its “pivot to the East” while rebuilding its ties […]

Anna Kireeva

Balance of power , Donald Trump , EU , Hub-and-Spokes , North Korea , Russian Far East , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , Ukraine

Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

The Negative Scenario I

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency generated numerous articles expecting or advocating a rapprochement or even a “grand bargain” with Russia. This reaction reflected Trump’s many favorable campaign statements about Vladimir Putin and the widely-perceived desirability in both Washington and Moscow of improved relations between the United States and Russia. Indeed, the Duma rejoiced at […]

Stephen Blank

Balance of power , chemical weapons , NATO , North Korea , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , Ukraine

Apr 13,2017 Open Forum

Limits of Chinese Patience Toward North Korea and Prospects of Chinese Cooperation with South Korea

The Korean Peninsula is in a state of deep, growing insecurity. To the north, the Kim regime continues to launch ballistic missiles into the East Sea and prepare for what many expect will be further nuclear tests. Alarming too is the regime’s continued purge of the disgruntled elite, which signals heightened internal instability. The use […]

Eun A Jo

Ahn Cheol-soo , Balance of power , core interests , Economic sanctions , Kim Jong-nam , Moon Jae-in , nuclear proliferation , presidential election , Six-Party Talks , THAAD

Mar 27,2017 Open Forum

Recent Views in Japan Concerning Sino-Russian Relations

How Japanese officials, media, and academics interpret the state of the relationship between China and Russia matters for Japan’s diplomacy with both countries and its foreign policy more generally, including with the United States. If they see a strong bond verging on an alliance with little chance of weakening, then Tokyo must accept that it […]

Yoko Hirose

8-point economic cooperation plan , Abe Shinzo , Arms sales , Balance of power , BRICS , energy , G7 , India , Kuril Islands , media

Feb 09,2017 Special Forum

Competing in a Shared Order in Asia

Arguably the leading challenge for US national security strategy in the coming decade is to recalibrate the US role for a more multipolar world order. The geopolitical as well as ideological foundations of the postwar order are under increasing strain.1 States with regional or global ambitions such as Russia, China, and Iran are challenging both […]

Michael J. Mazarr

A2/AD , AirSea Battle , anti-globalization , Asia pivot , Balance of power , East China Sea , hegemonic stability theory , Iran , military buildup , Multipolarity

Feb 01,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (January 2017)

The leadership vacuum created in December has raised questions about the legitimacy of both the domestic and foreign policies of the South Korean government. With opposing party candidates leading the poll for the 2017 presidential election likely to be advanced, they are calling for reversing controversial Park administration foreign policies like THAAD deployment, the 2015 […]

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)

Abe Shinzo , Balance of power , balancer , comfort women , Denuclearization , GSOMIA , isolationism , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Korea Air Defense Identification Zone , One China policy

Dec 20,2016 Open Forum

Synopsis of Washington, DC Meetings on Trump and the Korean Peninsula

A presidential transition in the United States understandably raises concern in allied countries heavily dependent for security and diplomacy. The transition from Obama to Trump is more unsettling than even the Carter to Reagan transition or the Clinton to Bush transition. Compounding the problem, the power transition and dangerous standoffs in East Asia keep US […]

Editorial Staff

Abe Shinzo , Al Qaeda , ASEAN , Balance of power , burden-sharing , comfort women , democratization , Denuclearization , Extended deterrence , GSOMIA

Dec 20,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: China (December 2016)

During the fall of 2016, Chinese experts continued to evaluate Sino-Russian and Sino-US relations. They drew attention to Japan’s “Taiwan faction,” assessed strengthening Japanese-Australian relations, and analyzed South Korea’s foreign relations strategy. They also considered the negative impact of local NGOs on China’s ability to complete various One Belt, One Road (OBOR) projects. Written before […]

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)

Abe Shinzo , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Australia , Balance of power , BRICS , color revolutions , Diaoyu islands , East China Sea , energy

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

Running into a Long Brick Wall? Trump and the Future of US-China Relations

The surprise election of Donald Trump as the United States’ 45th president triggered alarm bells in capitals across the world including Beijing, given Trump’s haphazard foreign policy remarks throughout the campaign and his propensity to trust his gut judgment on a range of critical issues. Hence, just how Trump is going to move on key […]

Lee Chung Min*

APEC , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , Balance of power , burden-sharing , climate change , Duterte , FTAAP , Iran , ISIS , NATO

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

Japanese Media on the Impact of Donald Trump’s Election on Japan and China

Japanese awakened to Donald Trump’s victory in disbelief, coining the label “Trump shock” to go with other “shocks” memorable in their history with the United States.1 A failure had occurred: of the US media, of the US role as the beacon of democracy, and of both a model of capitalism2 that was supposed to forestall […]

Gilbert Rozman

Abe Shinzo , Abenomics , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , Balance of power , burden-sharing , containment , cross-Strait relations , Duterte