Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Postive Scenario I

Russia until recently anticipated a rapprochement with the United States without damage to its close relations with China. Indeed, given anticipated tensions in US-China relations, the result would be advantageous for Russia: making it the pivot in the “strategic triangle” of these three great powers; sustaining its “pivot to the East” while rebuilding its ties […]

Anna Kireeva

Balance of power , Donald Trump , EU , Hub-and-Spokes , North Korea , Russian Far East , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , Ukraine

Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

The Negative Scenario I

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency generated numerous articles expecting or advocating a rapprochement or even a “grand bargain” with Russia. This reaction reflected Trump’s many favorable campaign statements about Vladimir Putin and the widely-perceived desirability in both Washington and Moscow of improved relations between the United States and Russia. Indeed, the Duma rejoiced at […]

Stephen Blank

Balance of power , chemical weapons , NATO , North Korea , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , Ukraine

Mar 27,2017 Open Forum

Recent Views in Japan Concerning Sino-Russian Relations

How Japanese officials, media, and academics interpret the state of the relationship between China and Russia matters for Japan’s diplomacy with both countries and its foreign policy more generally, including with the United States. If they see a strong bond verging on an alliance with little chance of weakening, then Tokyo must accept that it […]

Yoko Hirose

8-point economic cooperation plan , Abe Shinzo , Arms sales , Balance of power , BRICS , energy , G7 , India , Kuril Islands , media

Feb 28,2017 Open Forum

Washington Insights (Vol. 5, No. 1)

Rarely has there been such a tumultuous period in US foreign policy, reflected in DC discussions of it; many unknown figures were joining a new administration as lines of authority and influence were not only in flux, they were in chaos. Few in the think tank community spoke for the Trump team, but on Asia […]

Editorial Staff

Abe Shinzo , Arms trade , ASEAN , Australia , Central Asia , comfort women , contingency , G8 , Georgia , India

Feb 10,2017 Open Forum

Japan’s Russia Policy: Looking Back on 2016 and Ahead to 2017

Building closer relations with Russia was undoubtedly one of the main priorities of Japanese foreign policy in 2016. This was made clear by Prime Minister Abe in his New Year press conference that year when he emphasized the importance of holding regular summits with Russia, thereby indicating that he would proceed with plans for the […]

James D.J. Brown

1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , Crimea , East China Sea , Eastern Economic Forum , G7 , G8 , Hikiwake , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories

Feb 09,2017 Special Forum

Russia-China Defense Cooperation: New Developments

Sino-Russian defense cooperation has intensified significantly, especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, making an update of what I wrote in this journal barely a year ago important in a wide-ranging assessment of how the military situation is evolving in East Asia. Coming after a prolonged period of relative decline in defense relations between […]

Paul Schwartz

Arms trade , Diaoyu islands , East China Sea , International Army Games , Joint Sea naval exercise , Lada-class submarines , MIRV , missile defense system , Peace Mission , Putin

Feb 01,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (January 2017)

Three shocks left Japan’s media groping for answers at the end of 2016 and the start of 2017. The Trump shock kept playing out after the initial alarm and adjustment in November. This journal covered the first month’s response in detail, so this theme is not a focus here, even as the implications for Asia […]

Editorial Staff

abductions , Abe Shinzo , anti-globalization , ASEAN , Australia , comfort women , Crimea , Diaoyu islands , energy , GSOMIA

Dec 16,2016 Open Forum

Caught Between Two Big Powers? Central Asia Under the Weight of Russian and Chinese Influence

In 1991, the Soviet Union’s collapse reshaped the East/West problematic as it had emerged after World War II. Inside Soviet space, a number of cultural elements distinguished the five states of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) from the rest of the former Russian empire, namely their shared cultural, linguistic, and religious traits […]

Sebastien Peyrouse

Afghanistan , Arab Spring , Armenia , authoritarianism , banking , Belarus , Central Asia , Collective Security Treaty Organization , colonialism , colored revolutions

Nov 01,2016 Special Forum

Introduction

Park Geun-hye’s sober foreign policy choices in 2016 pointedly contrast with her much-lauded ambitions of 2014-2015. In this set of articles we make the comparisons, suggest reasons for the changes, and explore implications of this transformation. We ask: Was this an awakening from illusions to harsh realities? Was it a shift from Plan A to […]

Editorial Staff

4th nuclear test , 5th nuclear test , bonanza , comfort women , Crimea , Eastern Economic Forum , Eurasian Economic Initiative , Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative , South China Sea , THAAD

Oct 26,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Japan-Russia relations started gaining momentum from the beginning of 2016, and even for optimistic observers of that relationship, the tempo of activation that we see now is amazing. It all started in 2012 when Putin, running to become president again in March, held a press conference just a few days before the election, and said […]

Kazuhiko Togo

1956 Joint Declaration , Crimea , Eastern Economic Forum , four islands in a batch , Hikiwake , Kawana proposal , Putin , Shinzo Abe , Sochi summit , two plus alpha