February 10,2017 Open Forum

Xinjiang and the Trans-nationalization of Uyghur Terrorism: Cracks in the “New Silk Road”?

President Xi Jinping’s ambitious “One Belt, One Road” strategy has magnified Chinese concern for the security of its long restive northwestern province, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Xinjiang, as Owen Lattimore argued, throughout much of recorded history constituted (along with Tibet and Mongolia) the “marginal Inner Asian zone” of Chinese expansio..

Michael Clarke
9/11 , Afghanistan , Al Qaeda , Central Asia , counterterrorism , critical theory , East Turkestan Islamic Movement , energy , globalization , Iraq
December 28,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

The long-awaited December 15-16 Yamaguchi-Tokyo summit appears to have been a failure, which masqueraded as a step forward. That is the conclusion many sources in Japan have drawn, and the most reasonable finding unless one deduces from the remarks of Abe Shinzo and Vladimir Putin that in their 95-minute tete-a-tete with only interpreters present a confidential agenda was planned capable of produc..

Gilbert Rozman
1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , Eastern Economic Forum , energy , G7 , Hikiwake , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories , Peace Treaty , Putin
December 28,2016 Review Article

NBR’s Strategic Asia Volumes at the End of an Era

Ashley J. Tellis, Abraham M. Denmark, and Greg Chaffin, eds., Strategic Asia 2014-15, US Alliances and Partnerships at the Center of Global Power (Seattle & Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2014); Ashley J. Tellis with Alison Szalwinski and Michael Wills, eds., Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific (Seattle & Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Re..

Gilbert Rozman
ASEAN , Australia , burden-sharing , comfort women , Duterte , GSOMIA , India , Indo-Pacific , Indonesia , Maritime Silk Road
December 16,2016 Open Forum

Caught Between Two Big Powers? Central Asia Under the Weight of Russian and Chinese Influence

In 1991, the Soviet Union’s collapse reshaped the East/West problematic as it had emerged after World War II. Inside Soviet space, a number of cultural elements distinguished the five states of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) from the rest of the former Russian empire, namely their shared cultural, linguistic, and religious traits with the..

Sebastien Peyrouse
Afghanistan , Arab Spring , Armenia , authoritarianism , banking , Belarus , Central Asia , Collective Security Treaty Organization , colonialism , colored revolutions
December 13,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (November)

Two themes dominated the news in November: the “shock” of the election of Donald Trump, which is covered separately in a Special Forum article, and the “anticipation” of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan on December 15. Already in the first part of the fall there was a sharp increase in Japanese articles on Japan-Russia relations, and such attention accelerated in ..

Editorial Staff
AIIB , ASEAN , comfort women , East China Sea , energy , G20 , GSOMIA , Hikiwake , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Northern Territories
December 12,2016 National Commentaries

A View from Malaysia

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak made high-profile visits to China from October 18-21 and from October 31 to November 5, 2016, respectively. It was the first China visit for Duterte since he took office about four months earlier (his first trip outside of ASEAN), and the third for Najib as premier since 2009. Both visits sparked concerns that have ..

Kuik Cheng-Chwee* , Ithrana Lawrence
1MDB , Aman Youyi , ASEAN , CARAT , Comprehensive strategic partnership , corruption , Duterte , enhanced defense cooperation agreement , Infrastructure , Najib Razak
December 07,2016 Open Forum

Russia’s Far East Transborder Pains: China Threat Syndrome and the Tragedy of the Anticommons

The Russian Far East (RFE) has come a long way in the last fifteen years. The signature image of the region’s largest city of Vladivostok is no longer that of a quaint, late-nineteenth century railway station, but that of a daringly aerodynamic, cable-stayed bridge built over a mile long and two hundred feet tall to the nearby Russky Island for the 2012 APEC summit. The buildings erecte..

Mikhail Alexseev
anticommons , China threat , migration , Russian Far East , Transborder Trade and Economic Complex
November 01,2016 Special Forum

Introduction

Park Geun-hye’s sober foreign policy choices in 2016 pointedly contrast with her much-lauded ambitions of 2014-2015. In this set of articles we make the comparisons, suggest reasons for the changes, and explore implications of this transformation. We ask: Was this an awakening from illusions to harsh realities? Was it a shift from Plan A to Plan B after a valiant attempt to maximize the..

Editorial Staff
4th nuclear test , 5th nuclear test , bonanza , comfort women , Crimea , Eastern Economic Forum , Eurasian Economic Initiative , Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative , South China Sea , THAAD
November 01,2016 Special Forum

Trilateralism and Realignment: Reassessing Three Triangles with South Korea

South Korea stands at the vortex of three geopolitical triangles and also in the shadow of the North Korean menace to regional stability. All of these trilateral configurations in the final months of 2016 are in the process of transformation and could evolve in unexpected ways. Foremost in most minds is the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which any Hillary Clinton pivot 2.0 might be poised to..

Gilbert Rozman
5thnuclear test , comfort women , constitutional revisionism , Denuclearization , Eastern Economic Forum , Eurasia Economic Union , Eurasian Initiative , GSOMIA , Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative , Park Geun-hye
October 26,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

As Abe Shinzo proceeds at breakneck pace to reach a breakthrough with Vladimir Putin, at least five questions need to be addressed from the perspective of the United States. First, is there reason to object to a territorial settlement less than the optimal position of Japan in years past? Second, what economic arrangements between Japan and Russia are likely to be seen as inconsistent with th..

Gilbert Rozman
four islands in a batch , G7 , Multipolarity , Putin , Russian Far East , sanctions , Shinzo Abe , THAAD , two plus alpha