October 16,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

After North Korea’s sixth and most-powerful nuclear test last September, few would have expected to see President Moon Jae-in step off a plane to embrace Chairman Kim Jong-un on the tarmac at Pyongyang International Airport. Moon's efforts to include North Korea in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics catalyzed fast-paced shuttle diplomacy that has extended beyond the Korean Peninsula via No..

Kathryn Botto
Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration , Pyongyang summit
October 16,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

In what is considered one of Pyongyang’s most potent propaganda events—a mass performance called the “Glorious Country”—Moon Jae-in addressed some 150,000 North Koreans, who erupted in teary applause as he proclaimed a “new era” of peace and prosperity. In his seven-minute-long speech, Moon implored the two Koreas to “end the past 70 years of hostility..

Eun A Jo
Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration , Pyongyang summit
September 27,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (September 2018)

The second half of the summer saw the build-up to the third summit of Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un as well as more wide-ranging diplomacy in North-South relations in the background. One occasion was the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers’ meeting in Singapore. Another was the closely-watched presidential speech on August 15. Finally, as the summer was ending Moon traveled to Py..

Kim Kimberly
ASEAN Regional Forum , inter-Korean summit , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Mount Geumgang , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang Declaration
August 31,2018 Special Forum

US-China Rivalry and the Future of the Korean Peninsula

The ongoing “trade war” between the United States and China is not just a trade dispute in light of the two sides’ intensifying rivalry in the area of strategic technologies. The rivalry has deepened as China has stepped up efforts to overtake western countries in advanced technologies, especially for semiconductors (the silicon brains required to run smartphones), connect..

Kim Sung-han*
alliance transition , CVID , Panmunjom Declaration , Quad , THAAD , US-ROK alliance , value alliance
August 29,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Diplomacy II

Reviewing the most recent developments in security and military cooperation as well as diplomacy over the Korean Peninsula and the rise of China, this second view of the prospects for Sino-Japanese relations finds hope in what has been transpiring. The year 2018 shows signs of being a turning point in the relationship, leading to a win-win outcome for the region. Japan-China Security Coope..

Tanaka Hitoshi*
HA/DR , Japan-China Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism , Singapore Summit , US-Japan alliance
August 29,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Diplomacy I

Future Prospects for Japan-China Cooperation This year marks the 40th anniversary of the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship. Over these four decades, Japan-China relations have gone through a number of ups and downs as history and territorial issues have at times hindered political relations while economic interdependence has deepened. Recently, Japan-China relations appear to be on ..

Tanaka Hitoshi*
East China Sea , Japan-China-South Korea trilateral summit , Senkaku Islands , TPP-11 , US-DPRK summit , US-Japan alliance
August 28,2018 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 6, No. 4

The pace of change amid the perplexity of the Trump administration is proving overwhelming to many in DC, as elsewhere. Alarm about how badly it is handling North Korea—widening the divide in how to deal with that country—and the shock of an ominously looming trade war with China are but two of the pressing issues in daily news coverage. Yet, stepping back from this frenzy leaves some con..

Editorial Staff
BRI , Eurasian Economic Community , free and open Indo-Pacific , Greater Eurasia , Quad
August 23,2018 National Commentaries

Can Vietnam’s Doi Moi Reforms Be an Inspiration for North Korea?

North Korea’s future remains one of the biggest questions of current world politics. Not only because of the complexities related to denuclearization, but also, and potentially even more challenging, because of unprecedented questions on how to integrate a long-term rogue regime into the international system. This includes normalization of its economy and politics. The “Vietnam mo..

Huong Le Thu
APAC , ASEAN , Doi Moi , Vietnamese Communist Party , Workers’ Party of Korea
August 21,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2018)

China’s foreign relations are under extraordinary flux. Sino-US relations are viewed as more perilous than at any time since 1989 with some even going further back to 1979 or 1972. The often-troubled Sino-Japanese relationship has suddenly appeared to stabilize, as long-sought summits by Japan are presumed to be on track. The Sino-North Korean relationship abruptly normalized, leading t..

Gilbert Rozman
Act East Policy , BRI , Indo-Pacific strategy , inter-Korean summit , Quad , South China Sea , THAAD