January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Donald Trump

Donald Trump came to office vowing to make many changes in US foreign policy, whether in terms of labeling China a currency manipulator,1 and addressing the US–China bilateral trade deficit,2 or questioning the value of alliances. As we enter 2020, it is worth reviewing how US Indo-Pacific policy has changed under the Trump administration, highlighting areas of change, continuity, and the le..

Scott W. Harold
Donald Trump , free and open Indo-Pacific , freedom of navigation operations , Huawei , maximum pressure , the Quad , TPP , Trump-Kim summit
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Abe Shinzo

 On November 20, 2019, Abe Shinzo became the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history, at 2,887 days, surpassing the previous record held by Katsura Tarō in the early 1900s. If Abe serves out his current third three-year term, he will be in office until September 2021. Inclusive of his one-year tenure in 2006-2007, he will have served as prime minister for 10 years. This is a rem..

Glen S. Fukushima
Abe Shinzo , Abenomics , comfort women , Kantei , Liberal Democratic Party , Northern Territories , TPP , Yasukuni Shrine
January 20,2020 Special Forum

The Case of Moon Jae-in

The fact that North Korea assumes such center stage in the conduct of South Korea’s foreign and security policies is hardly surprising. Seventy years since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the two Koreas remain locked in confrontation. Despite multiple political and diplomatic initiatives since the early 1990s, all of the principal actors in the North Korean nuclear saga have fai..

Lee Chung Min*
inter-Korean summit , Moon Jae-in , Pyeongchang Winter Olympics , Sunshine Policy , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Several developments since October threaten the current engagement cycle with Pyongyang. North Korea has warned the United States of an ominous “Christmas gift.”1 It has conducted two “very important” missile-related tests in Sohae.2 It has vowed to demolish South Korean facilities in Mount Kumgang.3 It has ignored US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun’s plea ..

Brian Kim
GSOMIA , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , Worker’s Party
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

2019, which began with high hopes for progress in nuclear talks, is coming to an end amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Contrary to expectations, there was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea. However, North Korea’s state-run media reported on December 22 that Chairman Kim held an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of the North’s ru..

Jina Kim
ICBM , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance , wartime operational control , Worker’s Party
December 31,2019 Open Forum

Russian Commentary on South Korea in 2019

For the last three decades, since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the perception of South Korea in Russia has been generally positive. This has been true with respect to Russia’s general public and the political-expert community as well as the mass media. Such favorable attitudes have much to do with the fact that Russia and Korea have never had serious conflicts and disputes, since th..

Artyom Lukin
Eastern Economic Forum , Finlandization , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , Khasan-Rajin project , Korean wave , New Southern Policy , Nine Bridges Initiative
December 09,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (November 2019)

Through the fall, Seoul’s relationship with Tokyo has been at its nadir, but relations with both Pyongyang and Washington have also been deeply troubled. While conservative and progressive articles and commentators have differed in their recommendations, neither found much basis for hope. Under pressure, concessions have been made and perceived as responses to desperation. Fear persiste..

Kim Kimberly
CVID , GSOMIA , Mount Geumgang , Pyongyang Declaration , Special Measures Agreement , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance
December 02,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (November 2019)

China was on Russian minds the most, relegating the Korean Peninsula to second among Asian interests. On the one hand, Putin’s announcement of Russia transferring its missile defense apparatus to China set the tone for optimistic pronouncements of an upgrading of strategic relations, even if the term “alliance” was not in the official lexicon. Some foresaw an alliance, eve..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Eastern Economic Forum , Force of Siberia , free and open Indo-Pacific , INF Treaty , Nuclear non-proliferation , turn to the East
November 27,2019 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 7, No. 6

Against the shadow of impeachment hearings, the DC think tank community waited on three big developments in the Indo-Pacific region. The Sino-US trade talks riveted the international community with an outcome originally expected in November before the APEC summit was cancelled but still looming. The South Korea-Japan breakdown faced a November 22 deadline when Seoul could end participation ..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , China-South Korea-Japan summit , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , RCEP , THAAD , Trans-Pacific Partnership , US-China trade war
November 19,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (December 2019)

On August 24 after Abe surpassed Sato Eisaku as the longest-serving postwar prime minister, Mainichi compared the foreign policies of the two. Sato secured the return of Okinawa and was able to normalize relations with South Korea, while Abe spoke of resolving Japan’s unfinished diplomatic business; yet, on the Northern Territories and North Korea, he has nothing to show, while Sato&rs..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , RCEP , SCO , THAAD , Trans-Pacific Partnership , US-China trade war