Feb 22,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

The Constitutional Court of South Korea has until June to rule for or against the impeachment decision made by the National Assembly last December. As a majority of citizens are clamoring for an early decision, the court is under pressure to deliver the verdict sooner than later. In fact, the ruling is likely to arrive […]

Kim Jaechun*

4th nuclear test , Abe Shinzo , Ban Ki-moon , burden-sharing , comfort women , Constitutional Court , Dokdo , elections , GSOMIA , impeachment

Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A Chinese Perspective

Since Donald Trump took office last month, people everywhere have been concerned that US foreign policy could experience far-reaching change; the regional strategic situation in the Asia Pacific also could shift in an unfavorable direction for China. Understanding such concern, we must prevent misjudgments from forming on the basis of the penetration of this kind […]

Guan Guihai

Abe Shinzo , AIIB , Arms trade , ASEAN , Diaoyu islands , East Asia Summit , East China Sea , freedom of navigation , GSOMIA , military buildup

Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

At the end of the first month of his presidency, how should we anticipate Trump’s post “pivot to Asia” policy toward East Asia? What matters: his personnel picks, his tweets and statements, meetings and calls with foreign leaders, or the intersection of US actions and those of countries in East Asia? Many US analysts are […]

Gilbert Rozman

Abe Shinzo , ASEAN , Australia , Denuclearization , East China Sea , freedom of navigation operations , GSOMIA , India , Kim Jong-nam , military buildup

Feb 01,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (January 2017)

Russia appears to be on the precipice of some important change with less optimism than before but more candor about uncertainties. The December Putin-Abe summit left more questions than answers, less a sense of success or failure than of doubt on what comes next. The Putin-Xi summit of late November was perfunctory, coming amid continued […]

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)

Abe Shinzo , ASEAN , Central Asia , comfort women , EAS , energy , Eurasian Economic Union , G7 , Greater Eurasia , GSOMIA

Feb 01,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (January 2017)

Three shocks left Japan’s media groping for answers at the end of 2016 and the start of 2017. The Trump shock kept playing out after the initial alarm and adjustment in November. This journal covered the first month’s response in detail, so this theme is not a focus here, even as the implications for Asia […]

Editorial Staff

abductions , Abe Shinzo , anti-globalization , ASEAN , Australia , comfort women , Crimea , Diaoyu islands , energy , GSOMIA

Feb 01,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (January 2017)

The leadership vacuum created in December has raised questions about the legitimacy of both the domestic and foreign policies of the South Korean government. With opposing party candidates leading the poll for the 2017 presidential election likely to be advanced, they are calling for reversing controversial Park administration foreign policies like THAAD deployment, the 2015 […]

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)

Abe Shinzo , Balance of power , balancer , comfort women , Denuclearization , GSOMIA , isolationism , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Korea Air Defense Identification Zone , One China policy

Dec 29,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Being chief diplomat is one of the many roles that the president plays under the Korean political system. The chief diplomat has been missing in Korea for months since a string of mysterious scandals have incapacitated Park from performing presidential roles. Many worry that her absence on the diplomatic stage, at a volatile time of […]

Kim Jaechun*

4th nuclear test , comfort women , GSOMIA , Hwang Kyo-ahn , impeachment , Park Geun-hye , ROK National Assembly , summit diplomacy , THAAD , Trump administration

Dec 29,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

On December 9, the South Korean National Assembly passed a motion of impeachment against Park Geun-hye. The ROK Constitutional Court has up to 180 days from that date to review the motion of impeachment and to evaluate the specific charges contained in the motion. While the court reviews the evidence in support of the impeachment […]

Scott Snyder

burden-sharing , comfort women , GSOMIA , Hanjin , Hwang Kyo-ahn , impeachment , Park Geun-hye , ROK National Assembly , Samsung , THAAD

Dec 28,2016 Review Article

NBR’s Strategic Asia Volumes at the End of an Era

Ashley J. Tellis, Abraham M. Denmark, and Greg Chaffin, eds., Strategic Asia 2014-15, US Alliances and Partnerships at the Center of Global Power (Seattle & Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2014); Ashley J. Tellis with Alison Szalwinski and Michael Wills, eds., Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific (Seattle & Washington, DC: […]

Gilbert Rozman

ASEAN , Australia , burden-sharing , comfort women , Duterte , GSOMIA , India , Indo-Pacific , Indonesia , Maritime Silk Road

Dec 20,2016 Open Forum

Synopsis of Washington, DC Meetings on Trump and the Korean Peninsula

A presidential transition in the United States understandably raises concern in allied countries heavily dependent for security and diplomacy. The transition from Obama to Trump is more unsettling than even the Carter to Reagan transition or the Clinton to Bush transition. Compounding the problem, the power transition and dangerous standoffs in East Asia keep US […]

Editorial Staff

Abe Shinzo , Al Qaeda , ASEAN , Balance of power , burden-sharing , comfort women , democratization , Denuclearization , Extended deterrence , GSOMIA