Jun 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

Moscow continues to pursue irreconcilable policies globally and in Asia. As Anna Kireeva has written, Russian writers, if not the government, highlight an allegedly irreconcilable Sino-American rivalry to enhance Russia’s position in Asia. Moscow simultaneously holds out the hope that it can establish at least a long-term working relationship with Donald Trump’s administration on issues […]

Stephen Blank

ASEAN , BRI , EURASEC , North Korea , RCEP , RFE , South China Sea , TPP

Apr 24,2017 Special Forum

The Case of China

In the shadow of the recent summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, onlookers are eager for clues to the future of Sino–US relations and US policy in the Asia–Pacific. In the past context of a fairly stable US policy approach, China has developed entrenched perceptions of US policy, grounded in China’s assessment of its […]

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)

AIIB , cultural diplomacy , Dalai Lama , Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands , OBOR , RCEP , Scarborough Shoal , separatism , Six-Party Talks , South China Sea

Apr 17,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2017)

In early 2017, Chinese experts reacted to the Trump–Xi summit and assessed the broader implications of Trump’s election for the future of the world order—which Chinese observers widely believe to be in flux—and for China’s great power relations. They also explored India’s strategic implications for China by analyzing the changing security structure in the Indian […]

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)

AIIB , North Korea , OBOR , RCEP , South China Sea , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , US-China Comprehensive Dialogue

Feb 22,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: China (February 2017)

In late 2016-early 2017, Chinese analysts examined state-level decision-making on the Korean Peninsula. In the first batch of articles written after the Hague tribunal’s decision, they explored China’s approach to ASEAN, interpreted Duterte’s new China policy, and assessed ASEAN maritime management. They also considered the origins and implications of Abe’s nationalism and the prospects for […]

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)

ASEAN , ASEAN Maritime Forum , ASEAN Regional Forum , ASEAN+3 , community of common destiny , Duterte , East Asia Summit , energy , G7 , Greater Mekong Subregion

Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A Chinese Perspective

Since Donald Trump took office last month, people everywhere have been concerned that US foreign policy could experience far-reaching change; the regional strategic situation in the Asia Pacific also could shift in an unfavorable direction for China. Understanding such concern, we must prevent misjudgments from forming on the basis of the penetration of this kind […]

Guan Guihai

Abe Shinzo , AIIB , Arms trade , ASEAN , Diaoyu islands , East Asia Summit , East China Sea , freedom of navigation , GSOMIA , military buildup

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

What Trump Should Do about China

The monkey king raised his cudgel, and there was great disorder in Heaven. The jadelike firmament was cleared of dust With this phrase, Mao Zedong began China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. As nearly all Chinese would know, the phrase comes from a 16th century novel that has roots in folk beliefs dating from at least […]

June Teufel Dreyer

4th nuclear test , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , burden-sharing , China Dream , cyberespionage , Dalai Lama , Diaoyu islands , freedom of navigation

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

Running into a Long Brick Wall? Trump and the Future of US-China Relations

The surprise election of Donald Trump as the United States’ 45th president triggered alarm bells in capitals across the world including Beijing, given Trump’s haphazard foreign policy remarks throughout the campaign and his propensity to trust his gut judgment on a range of critical issues. Hence, just how Trump is going to move on key […]

Lee Chung Min*

APEC , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , Balance of power , burden-sharing , climate change , Duterte , FTAAP , Iran , ISIS , NATO

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

Facing China: Policy Challenges for the Trump Administration in East Asia

As Donald J. Trump comes to power as the 45th president of the United States, he and his national security and foreign policy team will face significant challenges in dealing with a now-formidable and recently more assertive China. To a great extent, the problems they will encounter in dealing with China would confront any early […]

Jacques deLisle

Agreed Framework , Asia pivot , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , burden-sharing , Charm offensive , constitutional revisionism , cross-Strait relations , Denuclearization , East China Sea , FTAAP

Dec 16,2016 Special Forum

Japanese Media on the Impact of Donald Trump’s Election on Japan and China

Japanese awakened to Donald Trump’s victory in disbelief, coining the label “Trump shock” to go with other “shocks” memorable in their history with the United States.1 A failure had occurred: of the US media, of the US role as the beacon of democracy, and of both a model of capitalism2 that was supposed to forestall […]

Gilbert Rozman

Abe Shinzo , Abenomics , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , Balance of power , burden-sharing , containment , cross-Strait relations , Duterte

Dec 12,2016 National Commentaries

A View from Malaysia

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak made high-profile visits to China from October 18-21 and from October 31 to November 5, 2016, respectively. It was the first China visit for Duterte since he took office about four months earlier (his first trip outside of ASEAN), and the third for Najib as […]

Kuik Cheng-Chwee* , Ithrana Lawrence

1MDB , Aman Youyi , ASEAN , CARAT , Comprehensive strategic partnership , corruption , Duterte , enhanced defense cooperation agreement , Infrastructure , Najib Razak