Special Forum

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Apr 24,2017 Special Forum

Introduction

The unpopularity of the United States is rising around the world, not excluding Northeast Asia. Donald Trump is seen as a loose cannon, arousing distrust in allies and anxiety among potential adversaries that are uncertain of his intentions. Yet, his impact is not a total departure from earlier skepticism and even animosity against the US role in Asia. To grasp it, we need to delve into criti..

Editorial Staff
alliance system , Anti-Americanism , Asianism , authoritarianism , Cold War , democratization , Donald Trump , Internationalism , missile defense , nuclear proliferation
Apr 24,2017 Special Forum

The Case of China

In the shadow of the recent summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, onlookers are eager for clues to the future of Sino–US relations and US policy in the Asia–Pacific. In the past context of a fairly stable US policy approach, China has developed entrenched perceptions of US policy, grounded in China’s assessment of its own national interests. Even when Sino–US relations are a..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
AIIB , cultural diplomacy , Dalai Lama , Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands , OBOR , RCEP , Scarborough Shoal , separatism , Six-Party Talks , South China Sea
Apr 24,2017 Special Forum

The Case of Russia

When Russian and Japanese foreign and defense ministers met in Tokyo in mid-March for their 2+2 discussions, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sensed the presence of a third party obstructing Russo-Japanese friendship. He told Japanese colleagues of his “concerns regarding consistent tendencies to a bloc approach” to Asia-Pacific security. Russia, Lavrov explained, promotes measures ..

Chris Miller
annexation of Crimea , Cold War , Korean War , military alliance , nuclear proliferation , regime change , sanctions , Six-Party Talks , THAAD , TPP

Open Forum

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Apr 13,2017 Open Forum

Limits of Chinese Patience Toward North Korea and Prospects of Chinese Cooperation with South Korea

The Korean Peninsula is in a state of deep, growing insecurity. To the north, the Kim regime continues to launch ballistic missiles into the East Sea and prepare for what many expect will be further nuclear tests. Alarming too is the regime’s continued purge of the disgruntled elite, which signals heightened internal instability. The use of VX nerve agent in Kim Jung-nam’s assassi..

Eun A Jo
Ahn Cheol-soo , Balance of power , core interests , Economic sanctions , Kim Jong-nam , Moon Jae-in , nuclear proliferation , presidential election , Six-Party Talks , THAAD
Mar 27,2017 Open Forum

Recent Views in Japan Concerning Sino-Russian Relations

How Japanese officials, media, and academics interpret the state of the relationship between China and Russia matters for Japan’s diplomacy with both countries and its foreign policy more generally, including with the United States. If they see a strong bond verging on an alliance with little chance of weakening, then Tokyo must accept that it has few options other than to draw closer t..

Yoko Hirose
8-point economic cooperation plan , Abe Shinzo , Arms sales , Balance of power , BRICS , energy , G7 , India , Kuril Islands , media

National Commentaries

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Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A Japanese Perspective

On February 11, 2017, after having played golf with Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, President Donald Trump tweeted; "Having a great time hosting Prime Minister Abe in the United States!"1 Together with this comment, he uploaded a picture in which he was playing golf with Abe in Palm Beach, Florida. On the same day, Trump commented on Twitter that; "Played golf today with Prime Minis..

Hosoya Yuichi*
Abe Shinzo , cost sharing , Diaoyu islands , liberal internationalism , NATO , Obama , pivot to Asia , rebalance , Senkaku Islands , Territorial Disputes
Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A Chinese Perspective

Since Donald Trump took office last month, people everywhere have been concerned that US foreign policy could experience far-reaching change; the regional strategic situation in the Asia Pacific also could shift in an unfavorable direction for China. Understanding such concern, we must prevent misjudgments from forming on the basis of the penetration of this kind of logic. The world in which ..

Guan Guihai
Abe Shinzo , AIIB , Arms trade , ASEAN , Diaoyu islands , East Asia Summit , East China Sea , freedom of navigation , GSOMIA , military buildup
Feb 02,2017 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

At the end of the first month of his presidency, how should we anticipate Trump’s post “pivot to Asia” policy toward East Asia? What matters: his personnel picks, his tweets and statements, meetings and calls with foreign leaders, or the intersection of US actions and those of countries in East Asia? Many US analysts are not wedded to all of the pivot, but this was seen larg..

Gilbert Rozman
Abe Shinzo , ASEAN , Australia , Denuclearization , East China Sea , freedom of navigation operations , GSOMIA , India , Kim Jong-nam , military buildup

Alternative Scenarios

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Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Postive Scenario I

Russia until recently anticipated a rapprochement with the United States without damage to its close relations with China. Indeed, given anticipated tensions in US-China relations, the result would be advantageous for Russia: making it the pivot in the “strategic triangle” of these three great powers; sustaining its “pivot to the East” while rebuilding its ties to the ..

Anna Kireeva
Balance of power , Donald Trump , EU , Hub-and-Spokes , North Korea , Russian Far East , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , Ukraine
Apr 17,2017 Alternative Scenarios

The Negative Scenario I

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency generated numerous articles expecting or advocating a rapprochement or even a “grand bargain” with Russia. This reaction reflected Trump’s many favorable campaign statements about Vladimir Putin and the widely-perceived desirability in both Washington and Moscow of improved relations between the United States and Russia. Indeed..

Stephen Blank
Balance of power , chemical weapons , NATO , North Korea , Strategic Triangle , Syria , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , Ukraine

Country Reports

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Apr 17,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2017)

In early 2017, Chinese experts reacted to the Trump–Xi summit and assessed the broader implications of Trump’s election for the future of the world order—which Chinese observers widely believe to be in flux—and for China’s great power relations. They also explored India’s strategic implications for China by analyzing the changing security structure in the Indian Ocean ..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
AIIB , North Korea , OBOR , RCEP , South China Sea , THAAD , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , US-China Comprehensive Dialogue
Mar 27,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (March 2017)

On February 10, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs carried an Interfax interview with Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov on Russian Asia policies in the past year. He cited as the biggest event the May Sochi summit with the members of ASEAN. A second important event was carrying the entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO to the “finish line,” with possible entry in 2017. The thi..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
Abe Shinzo , APEC , ASEAN , Cold War , Denuclearization , Eastern Economic Forum , globalization , Greater Eurasia , India , Kuril Islands
Mar 23,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (March 2017)

In the first months of 2017, the cloud of impeachment hung heavily over South Korea’s foreign policy, while China’s anger at the THAAD deployment kept growing, and signs of the Trump administration taking a tough stance against North Korea’s increasingly serious threat capacity were growing too. Seoul’s relations with Tokyo were more troubled than before, and ties to M..

Editorial Staff (prepared by Han Minjeong)
Arms Race , ASEAN , comfort women , Eurasia Initiative , impeachment , India , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Kim Jong-nam , missile tests , NAPCI

Review Article

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