December 29,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Being chief diplomat is one of the many roles that the president plays under the Korean political system. The chief diplomat has been missing in Korea for months since a string of mysterious scandals have incapacitated Park from performing presidential roles. Many worry that her absence on the diplomatic stage, at a volatile time of geopolitical change, has done serious damage to national interest..

Kim Jaechun*
4th nuclear test , comfort women , GSOMIA , Hwang Kyo-ahn , impeachment , Park Geun-hye , ROK National Assembly , summit diplomacy , THAAD , Trump administration
December 29,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

On December 9, the South Korean National Assembly passed a motion of impeachment against Park Geun-hye. The ROK Constitutional Court has up to 180 days from that date to review the motion of impeachment and to evaluate the specific charges contained in the motion. While the court reviews the evidence in support of the impeachment motion, Park is sidelined from her official responsibilities and has..

Scott Snyder
burden-sharing , comfort women , GSOMIA , Hanjin , Hwang Kyo-ahn , impeachment , Park Geun-hye , ROK National Assembly , Samsung , THAAD
December 28,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

The long-awaited December 15-16 Yamaguchi-Tokyo summit appears to have been a failure, which masqueraded as a step forward. That is the conclusion many sources in Japan have drawn, and the most reasonable finding unless one deduces from the remarks of Abe Shinzo and Vladimir Putin that in their 95-minute tete-a-tete with only interpreters present a confidential agenda was planned capable of produc..

Gilbert Rozman
1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , Eastern Economic Forum , energy , G7 , Hikiwake , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories , Peace Treaty , Putin
December 28,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Was President Putin’s visit on December 15-16 a success or a failure? Media coverage seems to have been almost unanimous in Japan and Russia. In Japan, a general sense of disappointment and many analytical articles concluded that the visit proved to be a failure for Prime Minister Abe. In Russia, conversely, a general sense prevailed that at least it was not a failure and possibly a victory for ..

Kazuhiko Togo
1855 treaty , 1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , APEC , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories , Peace Treaty , Putin , Territorial Disputes , Trump administration
December 28,2016 Review Article

NBR’s Strategic Asia Volumes at the End of an Era

Ashley J. Tellis, Abraham M. Denmark, and Greg Chaffin, eds., Strategic Asia 2014-15, US Alliances and Partnerships at the Center of Global Power (Seattle & Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2014); Ashley J. Tellis with Alison Szalwinski and Michael Wills, eds., Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific (Seattle & Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Re..

Gilbert Rozman
ASEAN , Australia , burden-sharing , comfort women , Duterte , GSOMIA , India , Indo-Pacific , Indonesia , Maritime Silk Road
December 20,2016 Open Forum

Synopsis of Washington, DC Meetings on Trump and the Korean Peninsula

A presidential transition in the United States understandably raises concern in allied countries heavily dependent for security and diplomacy. The transition from Obama to Trump is more unsettling than even the Carter to Reagan transition or the Clinton to Bush transition. Compounding the problem, the power transition and dangerous standoffs in East Asia keep US allies South Korea and Japan in a s..

Editorial Staff
Abe Shinzo , Al Qaeda , ASEAN , Balance of power , burden-sharing , comfort women , democratization , Denuclearization , Extended deterrence , GSOMIA
December 20,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: China (December 2016)

During the fall of 2016, Chinese experts continued to evaluate Sino-Russian and Sino-US relations. They drew attention to Japan’s “Taiwan faction,” assessed strengthening Japanese-Australian relations, and analyzed South Korea’s foreign relations strategy. They also considered the negative impact of local NGOs on China’s ability to complete various One Belt, One Road (OBOR) projects. Wri..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
Abe Shinzo , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Australia , Balance of power , BRICS , color revolutions , Diaoyu islands , East China Sea , energy
December 16,2016 Special Forum

Introduction

The Trump campaign and transition have aroused anxiety unlike anything seen in the recent history of US presidential leadership changes. This is visible in virtually every region in the world: Mexico, Russia, and Iran have stood in the forefront for very different reasons. Yet, while the drama of the “wall,” the “hacks,” and the “deal” have no ready paralle..

Editorial Staff
ASEAN , Asia pivot , burden-sharing , cross-Strait relations , Denuclearization , Duterte , energy , nuclear proliferation , Putin , rebalance
December 16,2016 Special Forum

What Trump Should Do about China

The monkey king raised his cudgel, and there was great disorder in Heaven. The jadelike firmament was cleared of dust With this phrase, Mao Zedong began China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. As nearly all Chinese would know, the phrase comes from a 16th century novel that has roots in folk beliefs dating from at least a millennium before. Among the mythical monkey’s p..

June Teufel Dreyer
4th nuclear test , ASEAN , Asia pivot , Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , burden-sharing , China Dream , cyberespionage , Dalai Lama , Diaoyu islands , freedom of navigation